AI · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb197645828f81de6b437425cf3eb26ab365d3480260af661239b405ca7bf1e4

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $111,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $105,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,882 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes	18c	25,587$4,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,626.74	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	13c	22,431$2,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,897.57	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed No	80c	21,612$17,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,393.25	17	88.2%15 W · 2 L	+7.5wins	+0.44per pick	44cpaid	+229.6%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No	78c	6,800$5,311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,488.97	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+59%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,024$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.77	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes	30c	3,501$1,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.76	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x616a…6104backed Yes	19c	3,124$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	19c	2,065$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.16per pick	29cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes	27c	1,589$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.88	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-5.7wins	-0.24per pick	40cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd140…9554backed No	75c	1,288$969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.41	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	33cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x840a…ef52backed Yes	28c	1,272$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes	9c	1,105$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.85	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Yes	1c	1,063$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No	80c	1,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	6c	989.97$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed Yes	13c	750$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	16c	704.38$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.06	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	656$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.26	267	4.9%13 W · 254 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	18c	637$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.94	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes	13c	634.62$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes	25c	629$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.25	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.22per pick	31cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	9c	620.29$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.83	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+60.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2407…9508backed Yes	20c	509.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	66c	500$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8697…190dbacked Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ec…27aebacked Yes	28c	489.54$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No	79c	476$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.96	82	41.5%34 W · 48 L	+6.5wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	18c	458$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.39	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5e…3871backed Yes	18c	440$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	16c	410.78$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.26	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	18c	357$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.45	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No	75c	300$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	15c	285$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	183	11.5%21 W · 162 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	15c	262.89$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	71c	240.68$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.85	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	+9.9wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	10c	221.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	288	28.5%82 W · 206 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes	20c	211$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.01	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x227f…41e3backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f9b…d771backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…2e00backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cad…d35cbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…a8c9backed Yes	12c	198.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked No	75c	183$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f4…2c5ebacked No	80c	182.11$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.42	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Yes	27c	177.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No	78c	170.14$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.55	629	1.3%8 W · 621 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed Yes	17c	165.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.09	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	22c	151.85$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	73	38.4%28 W · 45 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No	78c	150$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes	26c	149.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d0…70c2backed Yes	21c	140$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes	18c	111.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes	13c	110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed No	74c	103.55$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	323	29.1%94 W · 229 L	-15.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f1b…e554backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd77e…6adcbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf7…3033backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189f…11cdbacked Yes	25c	99.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No	75c	96.99$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.25	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No	73c	81.57$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No	78c	76$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No	74c	69.25$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.07	101	26.7%27 W · 74 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82e…b971backed No	80c	68.75$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.22per pick	41cpaid	+56.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6c1…a9acbacked No	77c	58$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	77cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No	74c	56$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.32	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x130c…782cbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No	74c	40.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dbe…56e6backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No	75c	36.79$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-33%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed No	79c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+111.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed No	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed No	73c	19.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	70c	19.93$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.94	211	25.6%54 W · 157 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	73c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.1	201	48.8%98 W · 103 L	+11.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event