TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Oilers vs. Blackhawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oilersof Oilers, Blackhawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$535,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $535,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9158…fa7bbacked Blackhawks38c50,000$19,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Oilers64c49,027$31,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,749.4930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Oilers62c42,753$26,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,245.991376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+56.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers61c38,485$23,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.611,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Blackhawks39c35,909$13,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,991.0648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Blackhawks41c35,194$14,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,260.4128353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Blackhawks41c20,772$8,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,516.6310840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Oilers59c20,000$11,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,149.911,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Oilers59c18,441$10,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,560.8179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e6…6894backed Blackhawks41c15,046$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Oilers59c14,676$8,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,017.1661953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Blackhawks38c14,052$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,385.2447951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Blackhawks2c13,762$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5538748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Blackhawks38c12,557$4,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.824654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Blackhawks40c11,368$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5008247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Oilers67c10,220$6,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.3385464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Oilers59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Blackhawks41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blackhawks40c8,881$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.9560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Oilers61c8,382$5,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.013855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Blackhawks40c8,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Oilers58c8,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Blackhawks38c7,210$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.671,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Oilers59c6,667$3,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.3117057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blackhawks41c6,500$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.491,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Oilers60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Blackhawks0c5,249$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.942504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Oilers61c5,246$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Blackhawks42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Oilers61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9512245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Oilers62c4,955$3,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.0341850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Blackhawks39c4,907$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.7838844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Oilers59c4,768$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.6818345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Blackhawks39c4,709$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.516139.3%24 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Oilers59c4,162$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.4239047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Oilers59c4,145$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.544841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Oilers59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Blackhawks41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6401233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Blackhawks40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Oilers60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Blackhawks39c3,846$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Oilers60c3,751$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.5322852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Blackhawks41c3,500$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4358134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oilers68c3,298$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.081,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks39c3,187$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.072,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Blackhawks0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Oilers62c2,899$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.4558467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blackhawks4c2,616$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Blackhawks40c2,556$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.430551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Oilers59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.3710746.7%50 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Oilers59c2,520$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.214848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Oilers79c2,182$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.747354.8%40 W · 33 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blackhawks2c2,163$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.692,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Oilers59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Blackhawks12c1,964$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.829926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Oilers59c1,903$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.063764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Blackhawks40c1,900$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Oilers61c1,824$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.946157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Oilers61c1,653$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.673647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blackhawks39c1,651$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.861,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Blackhawks42c1,600$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67224845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Oilers59c1,600$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65638046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Blackhawks40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7a…dac0backed Blackhawks39c1,497$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.83933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x790d…2feebacked Oilers61c1,497$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers62c1,488$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.691,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Oilers59c1,458$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.6311953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Blackhawks39c1,454$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.851,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oilers59c1,440$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.41,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Blackhawks3c1,400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386031.7%19 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfd…75aebacked Oilers61c1,372$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.08785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d0…17a6backed Blackhawks39c1,372$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65a…cf82backed Blackhawks39c1,364$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d23…2162backed Oilers61c1,364$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45c7…c5c9backed Oilers61c1,357$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5783…a8eabacked Blackhawks39c1,357$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea2…2cfebacked Oilers61c1,355$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.45683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdffa…b6aebacked Blackhawks39c1,355$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e9…c2c9backed Oilers61c1,354$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.06683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0a8…53cebacked Blackhawks39c1,354$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3650…d486backed Blackhawks39c1,353$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0c…6837backed Oilers61c1,353$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.67977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf481…c28bbacked Blackhawks39c1,349$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.111070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2daf…6ce7backed Oilers61c1,349$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.11875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d03…075dbacked Oilers61c1,349$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ab5…3776backed Blackhawks39c1,349$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2103…e4dcbacked Blackhawks39c1,347$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4433…2c31backed Oilers61c1,347$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd6…6d00backed Blackhawks39c1,345$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d5…2ef9backed Oilers61c1,345$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.551070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24b9…c076backed Blackhawks39c1,343$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…57dcbacked Oilers61c1,343$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82d…1b2dbacked Blackhawks39c1,342$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4601…4d42backed Blackhawks39c1,342$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbd…a15abacked Oilers61c1,342$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ff…ae0cbacked Oilers61c1,342$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e35…dddebacked Blackhawks39c1,341$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe126…73a1backed Oilers61c1,341$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…8d67backed Oilers61c1,340$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+56%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf193…0e9cbacked Oilers61c1,340$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.