NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e133715af179c1ec59e531e0013ebc560c567b90068a979f55173d77020561e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 49c | 14,017$6,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,868.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 49c | 11,394$5,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,758.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 3,722$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 51c | 2,880$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Knicks | 63c | 1,999$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.46 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Knicks | 57c | 1,763$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Knicks | 56c | 1,275$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Knicks | 54c | 1,024$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.91 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Timberwolves | 51c | 1,023$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.26 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 45c | 947.96$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Knicks | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Timberwolves | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Knicks | 56c | 475$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Knicks | 52c | 243.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Knicks | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 46c | 145$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Knicks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Knicks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves | 38c | 92.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked Knicks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 46c | 87.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Knicks | 62c | 53.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Knicks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Knicks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…7834backed Knicks | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc297…b0d2backed Knicks | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Knicks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.