NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c46bcd20e967b7ba2d83cf0284f60c11ba09304d52e58958dc546b649a97953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 49c | 5,500$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,814.99 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 49c | 4,502$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.44 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…f4f8backed Over | 51c | 4,359$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 2,367$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 51c | 2,251$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.83 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29a…8776backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf95…eb74backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…90e9backed Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…ce21backed Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 452$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 240$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 203.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 55c | 203.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 51c | 192.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 50c | 65.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 63.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 51c | 62.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Over | 53c | 57.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 51c | 34.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 50c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Knicks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.