NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7540fb9d474fbff88c576b033630a6aa58d7f25f3958e602794d63bedf0d40d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 10,014$4,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,706.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 5,022$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…7aa4backed Under | 50c | 4,740$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…6080backed Over | 51c | 4,647$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 3,680$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 54c | 927.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.01 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 54c | 93.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 26c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 49c | 59.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 47c | 48.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…a909backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 37.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Knicks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.