NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 251.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a4f20e4f66f6b0a6b407474d3a0c1b5fca0bec6ad0608e245f682f39b1e2a4e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9315…a744backed Under	53c	24,000$12,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,280	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x00f4…df59backed Over	47c	24,000$11,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,280	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	44c	4,374$1,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,938.26	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Over	46c	3,500$1,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,624.94	1,164	49.6%577 W · 587 L	+7.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…9536backed Under	55c	2,887$1,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,304.19	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under	77c	2,622$2,019 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.06	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under	56c	2,321$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,021.43	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+24%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	48c	1,648$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.09	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	80c	1,488$1,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.52	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	25c	1,303$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.86	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	48c	1,284$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.31	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	1,273$586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.72	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Under	56c	1,264$708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.29	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	45c	1,112$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.4	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Under	51c	765.11$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.9	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Over	49c	750$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.5	104	46.2%48 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	54c	700$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Over	48c	627.86$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	46c	606.05$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.06	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Under	79c	501.65$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.81	187	43.3%81 W · 106 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Under	56c	500$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	191	49.7%95 W · 96 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Under	55c	400$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	55c	363.84$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.84	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	45c	352.73$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.73	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	55c	339$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.55	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	45c	339$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.55	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	44c	299.99$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	54c	292.59$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.59	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed Under	55c	272.73$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.73	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Over	48c	203$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.93	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over	47c	198.57$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd55c…d703backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	45c	177.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Under	54c	164.89$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.85	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	47c	162.85$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.23	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260a…4282backed Under	54c	150$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	59c	132$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.59	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…cb14backed Under	54c	129.63$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.63	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over	21c	125.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4b…14e2backed Under	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	235	47.7%112 W · 123 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Under	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	120	62.5%75 W · 45 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	41c	99.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236d…5e45backed Under	54c	92.66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.66	84	58.3%49 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	150	54%81 W · 69 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eca…9b1bbacked Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	56c	92.38$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.64	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	45c	79.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.39	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11fa…ebf3backed Under	55c	73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.85	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+5.2wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under	56c	71.9$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.9	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	54c	62.22$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.62	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	54c	62.22$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.62	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca6…9a97backed Over	47c	58.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Under	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	44c	52.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x754d…893bbacked Under	55c	52$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	55c	45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.25	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe71…72a4backed Over	47c	44.86$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	28c	44.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Under	56c	36.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.26	98	43.9%43 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4679…bc44backed Over	45c	33.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f7…0899backed Over	47c	33.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…7834backed Under	55c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Under	55c	31.05$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.97	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…74b7backed Under	53c	29.36$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90e1…5848backed Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Under	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	187	57.2%107 W · 80 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97f1…47a5backed Under	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under	64c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	+10.1wins	+0.10per pick	41cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	55c	23.64$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under	59c	21.96$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf374…6a83backed Under	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Under	71c	18.55$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.45	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 251.5this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
Jazz vs. CavaliersJazz won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 246.5Under won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 247.5Under won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 248.5Under won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 249.5Under won
Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Jusuf Nurkić: Rebounds Over 8.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Jazz won
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Jazz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Cavaliers: O/U 251.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event