NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9ba2d17d4634ef9061fdee2c67946ac78f25f2352c97e84ed8c0f4e652f6a3

Rebuilt 48 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $72,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,307 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1624…bf63backed Over	1c	13,829$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.25	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	10,465$4,761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,703.88	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Over	1c	9,429$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.57	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over	56c	9,000$5,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,040	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	40c	5,936$2,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,374.42	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Over	52c	3,412$1,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,759.14	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	45c	2,811$1,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,267.2	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over	4c	2,100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	85	12.9%11 W · 74 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	4c	1,969$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.78	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over	11c	1,363$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.93	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	1,340$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$664.93	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Over	53c	1,107$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.81	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under	45c	907$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.85	346	54%187 W · 159 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	53c	800$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Over	4c	800$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Over	50c	782$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391	150	38%57 W · 93 L	-5.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	37c	705$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.15	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over	26c	702.17$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.28	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7448…b4cfbacked Over	50c	580$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over	54c	557.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	46c	546.27$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.49	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	485.08$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.69	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	53c	464.56$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.93	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	62c	418.33$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.67	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…2370backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	53c	357$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.21	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Over	79c	352.58$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.54	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7422…e383backed Over	61c	329.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	46c	328.11$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.57	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	44c	300$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over	34c	299.14$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.65	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under	68c	294.2$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.2	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	75c	267.73$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a8…22f0backed Under	48c	217.83$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Over	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	85	11.8%10 W · 75 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over	79c	183.41$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.49	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	69cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561b…837ebacked Under	50c	180$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	41c	180$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	49c	144.76$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.11	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…74cfbacked Over	53c	133$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.83	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Over	59c	125.98$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.23	110	48.2%53 W · 57 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	38c	103.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf8…ca3fbacked Over	35c	90.14$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	86.96$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.96	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	50c	81$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	45c	80.76$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.08	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa985…1ebfbacked Over	53c	80.12$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.78	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	54c	80$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	1,028	48.5%499 W · 529 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over	51c	72.7$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	179	49.2%88 W · 91 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Over	40c	68.18$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.99	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe4…8f49backed Over	56c	65.48$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.67	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ee…31cabacked Under	48c	62.79$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.65	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…ff92backed Under	46c	60.03$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.6	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	28c	57.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	306	16.7%51 W · 255 L	-36.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over	72c	45$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under	52c	42.47$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	230	47.4%109 W · 121 L	+19.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	47c	42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.12	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under	68c	41$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.12	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d7…2eaebacked Over	39c	40.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf4e…1ec7backed Over	59c	40.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-63%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under	41c	40$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.6	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Over	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75c0…dfd2backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	53c	35.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Over	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12f…0fb0backed Over	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	50c	28.88$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	55c	28.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1e…7834backed Over	49c	26.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over	46c	24.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	117	41.9%49 W · 68 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event