NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2cf3219a0788348d88ed312c1df835fd3107c78786881bcc701c889cc7bb08

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $129,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $132,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,974 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	46,200$23,745 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,454.26	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under	52c	42,092$21,888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,204.15	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…f86dbacked Over	48c	20,726$9,969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,969.02	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over	48c	20,000$9,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,600	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	18,826$8,992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,992.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	52c	9,839$5,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,735.13	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	7,038$3,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,379.89	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	48c	6,021$2,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,920.14	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Over	49c	5,969$2,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,924.81	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over	48c	4,599$2,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,207.22	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over	49c	4,561$2,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,235	162	54.3%88 W · 74 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over	49c	4,133$2,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,025	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ae…41afbacked Over	49c	3,569$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Over	49c	2,501$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,225.38	113	61.9%70 W · 43 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce3…9edbbacked Over	50c	1,978$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.89	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.29per pick	42cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	52c	1,817$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.16	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	47c	1,470$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Over	49c	1,422$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697	173	44.5%77 W · 96 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	46c	1,375$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.23	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under	52c	1,250$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Under	54c	1,222$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.12	110	48.2%53 W · 57 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	48c	1,066$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.68	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	51c	1,022$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.57	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	48c	1,012$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.62	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	132	60.6%80 W · 52 L	+14.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	53c	999.99$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.99	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over	47c	858.73$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.6	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Under	58c	824.45$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.11	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over	48c	821.34$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.24	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	52c	662.44$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.27	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under	51c	588.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.6	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Under	53c	570.37$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.37	258	47.3%122 W · 136 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	31c	564.23$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.37	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over	29c	552.79$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.97	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under	53c	479.79$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.5	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	229	45.9%105 W · 124 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…6207backed Over	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Under	55c	363.64$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.64	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	43c	342.69$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.17	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	52c	331$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.88	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Over	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	43	7%3 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	54c	292.59$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.59	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	46c	253.7$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.7	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a8…3c7cbacked Over	61c	238.9$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.43	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a233backed Under	51c	218.08$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.86	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	46c	208.8$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.05	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f7…b542backed Over	48c	206.25$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	170	35.9%61 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	47c	175.85$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.65	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	53c	157.2$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.63	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	54c	112$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.77	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4b…14e2backed Under	54c	111.11$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	235	47.7%112 W · 123 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	40c	94.4$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.04	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	48c	85.95$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.86	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa985…1ebfbacked Under	52c	81.65$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.19	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x916d…308abacked Under	58c	69.16$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.05	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	36cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	48c	66.81$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.16	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Over	47c	66.57$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	222	47.3%105 W · 117 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f60…f897backed Under	55c	58.18$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.18	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over	41c	57.39$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	39c	55.91$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Under	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	230	47.4%109 W · 121 L	+19.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Under	52c	49.99$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.89	51	68.6%35 W · 16 L	+8.1wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	46c	49.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.72	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ded…a1e5backed Under	72c	45.64$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Under	55c	43.64$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	26c	41.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	153	55.6%85 W · 68 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Over	48c	37.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	47c	34.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	49c	32.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9229…830bbacked Under	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72cf…09bbbacked Under	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Under	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	142	51.4%73 W · 69 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb534…2eb8backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x891c…ef89backed Over	69c	28.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	20	65%13 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	46c	27.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.21	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event