Token Launches · resolved market
Will Fogo launch a token by March 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4819adad2fcf34eb3a837cc1521c14cddd655e32b26e6b551cf4af6a408b4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 2c | 10,290$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 6,996$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 6c | 1,750$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +698.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 17c | 1,739$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 80c | 1,550$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.95 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f4…5b9dbacked No | 1c | 1,174$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 1c | 936.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 930$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 16c | 521.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc48e…7708backed No | 29c | 387.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 165.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked No | 18c | 126$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…7834backed No | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 72c | 57.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fogo launch a token by March 31 2026?this page
- Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025?No won
- Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes won
- Will Fogo launch a token by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Fogo launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.