TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3b6…86abbacked Yes10c11,004$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.984425%11 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c2,755$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.061662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x526c…b115backed Yes33c2,592$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd0e…a9c8backed Yes8c1,700$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc682…8b68backed No67c1,692$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed No70c1,434$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd2…25e9backed No72c1,252$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed No61c1,247$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.871225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No63c1,187$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.498052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff44…b678backed Yes9c868.79$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.82128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9227…4df5backed Yes5c828.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.086222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x273a…3963backed Yes37c812.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No72c786.66$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.937919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0213…f7e3backed Yes25c634.03$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No73c610.71$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.079747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes12c600$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No79c594.41$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2710756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1425…c7c4backed No79c580.95$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf239…3627backed Yes12c566.63$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.445529.1%16 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes35c546.65$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3315362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c539.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.037663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7734…4193backed Yes50c496.04$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.851315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-78.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xafe8…da74backed Yes22c462.82$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Yes22c450.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b0…53bbbacked Yes53c444.86$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e1c…2e53backed Yes24c426.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c379$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.932377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes6c375.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.45773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked No56c367$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.823135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd26a…c644backed Yes11c366.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50a…ccddbacked Yes11c363.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes24c328.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.492669.2%18 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+36.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes38c320.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.42195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-91.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e4…600dbacked Yes34c297.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9469…31c9backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9879…6effbacked Yes31c248.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked No73c238.58$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.593066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No61c230$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c225.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.325422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bdf…83a0backed Yes29c213.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-77.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c211.58$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9246320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes6c200.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6320422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed No76c198.05$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.051136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No65c182.02$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.661957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x589d…7a42backed Yes31c175.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No63c167.65$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed No72c137.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes18c135$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.752725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b96…19babacked Yes45c109.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed Yes23c108.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked No74c107.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016a…d347backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x035a…e211backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a15…32f3backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3987…66a8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked No51c88.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.241560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+61%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefcc…540bbacked Yes30c80.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5238…26adbacked Yes26c75.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc134…a150backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd5…4836backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda7c…95f0backed Yes19c72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.681926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed No59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No65c69.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked No63c67.22$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.573154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306f…fc3dbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…f9e3backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede3…e3f2backed Yes33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155831%18 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83be…c297backed No66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No74c40.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.656227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb10…af05backed Yes31c32.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No65c31.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.144273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef41…6438backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes34c29.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.094533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f4…32a2backed No72c27.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7621240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6c…59d8backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9760…24a5backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a9…b655backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.