TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$706,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$719,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 369 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Lightning60c299,915$179,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,965.8415953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers40c261,191$104,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,476.4667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Flyers42c43,029$18,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,052.5156649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…9785backed Flyers44c42,000$18,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,48010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Flyers42c28,605$12,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,038.1528353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5efe…569dbacked Lightning60c22,594$13,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,037.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Lightning60c20,000$11,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10019555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning58c20,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,399.9625449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Lightning59c19,112$11,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,835.811376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lightning58c17,500$10,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.9532946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Flyers0c11,133$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.891458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Lightning58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Flyers42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2002853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning71c9,984$7,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.793,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning59c9,198$5,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,771.0861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Flyers40c9,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Flyers40c8,225$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,289.8850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning57c7,698$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.641,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Lightning59c7,627$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.0133243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Lightning57c7,450$4,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,203.471656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning56c6,796$3,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.1856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Flyers41c6,500$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,664.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers37c6,166$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.221,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Flyers40c5,642$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.9114553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Flyers40c5,555$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2225149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning60c5,485$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,19426058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning59c5,238$3,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.681,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Flyers43c5,200$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.2261953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Flyers40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flyers41c4,881$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.9660337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…6db6backed Flyers42c4,721$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Flyers40c4,495$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7984841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Lightning59c4,440$2,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.4313948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Flyers18c4,118$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.329926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Lightning59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6405152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Flyers40c3,838$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5359254.3%50 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Flyers42c3,555$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.18348.2%40 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Flyers41c3,542$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.2230551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Flyers1c3,515$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.82504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Flyers42c3,500$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lightning60c3,469$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.7893953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Flyers41c3,340$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.413147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Lightning58c3,333$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.8525447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Flyers42c3,306$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.5818345.9%84 W · 99 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers42c3,212$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.141,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Flyers3c3,160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1154418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning62c3,096$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.6748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec81…988ebacked Flyers41c2,951$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2101040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b7…cc32backed Lightning59c2,690$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.96443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Lightning72c2,623$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.3619645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Flyers40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers15c2,459$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Flyers41c2,440$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.444551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers40c2,400$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flyers41c2,341$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.442,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Lightning69c2,268$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.1685464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Flyers26c2,218$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.121,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Flyers1c2,147$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.857450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Flyers41c2,144$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4233345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Flyers38c2,110$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.848050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Flyers41c2,003$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.3362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Flyers41c1,983$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.6710056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers40c1,945$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.91,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Flyers42c1,786$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7509846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lightning57c1,616$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.8884953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Lightning59c1,568$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.820047.5%95 W · 105 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f85…bd8cbacked Flyers40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Flyers41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.991,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3383…c5c0backed Lightning59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.992347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Flyers40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9963249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers41c1,433$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.531,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Flyers44c1,276$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.633647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Flyers41c1,228$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.4825045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lightning57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51610848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Flyers42c1,150$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.549045.3%222 W · 268 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Flyers40c1,115$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.95855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03d6…2563backed Flyers41c1,098$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Flyers41c1,070$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.9897651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Flyers41c1,020$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41851452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Flyers40c1,014$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.614848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Flyers40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40045749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Flyers41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Flyers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Lightning57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43072448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Flyers41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41039047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Flyers40c952$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.83240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Lightning60c866.67$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.6730657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Flyers41c860.65$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4345751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ff…9ff5backed Flyers41c859.5$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Lightning75c856.65$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1395049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Flyers41c854$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1483149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1969…a09cbacked Lightning59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.465050%25 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Lightning60c822.75$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.14965.3%32 W · 17 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9f2…d776backed Flyers4c811.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.143333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2582…478bbacked Flyers41c768.29$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3152055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Flyers42c714.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0110846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Flyers40c699.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Flyers41c691.91$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6511248.2%54 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.