NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2a6780ddc282c675b6f99db25c9ce36166510a4d05c21f1e4bd56ee7b8cade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 56c | 4,262$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.36 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 2,723$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.99 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 45c | 2,505$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.25 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 2,288$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.03 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 2,063$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.92 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over | 43c | 1,367$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 1,323$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.3 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 816$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.73 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 706.38$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 701.84$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.84 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 55c | 600.55$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 500$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 56c | 488.06$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 444$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 388$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.22 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 45c | 319$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 56c | 311.6$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 58c | 212.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 44c | 169.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 54c | 145.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 141.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 48c | 97.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 56c | 92.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 55c | 84.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 46c | 81.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Under | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 57.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 55c | 54.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 44c | 51.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 45.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Over | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 33.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. FlyersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.