NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42f04e1816cdbf0ba8c95aaa8b1987816fd4c080f40a1ec982d4899ab366732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning | 36c | 2,869$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.82 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 63c | 2,170$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.94 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Flyers | 66c | 1,158$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.3 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 38c | 1,104$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.32 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 34c | 884.39$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Flyers | 66c | 799.36$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 35c | 611.69$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.6 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Lightning | 37c | 467.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.62 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Flyers | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Lightning | 38c | 368.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Lightning | 34c | 364.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.35 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Lightning | 35c | 350$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Flyers | 65c | 350$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 38c | 300$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning | 36c | 288$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.32 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lightning | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Flyers | 62c | 197.34$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 34c | 171.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 64c | 129.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Flyers | 63c | 114.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flyers | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flyers | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lightning | 37c | 83.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flyers | 64c | 77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Lightning | 35c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Lightning | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Lightning | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Lightning | 37c | 56.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Flyers | 63c | 53.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flyers | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Lightning | 79c | 31.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flyers | 63c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Flyers | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lightning | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Flyers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. FlyersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.