NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec49f462447f11d1fb0ad2b4085f24a5d1c6aff7933fe69d0f08417658f554a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Spurs | 57c | 84,890$48,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,175.44 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 39c | 26,695$10,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,480.53 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 46c | 25,901$11,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,911.86 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 42c | 22,674$9,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,617.51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…1a24backed Thunder | 47c | 8,434$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 52c | 7,909$4,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 48c | 7,760$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,724.58 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 43c | 4,248$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Spurs | 52c | 3,735$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.62 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 46c | 3,592$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.31 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Thunder | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.93 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Spurs | 60c | 2,186$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.7 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Spurs | 52c | 2,044$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.23 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 37c | 1,965$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Spurs | 54c | 1,667$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.67 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Thunder | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 48c | 1,166$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.74 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Spurs | 52c | 1,140$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Spurs | 63c | 1,055$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.52 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Spurs | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.99 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Spurs | 54c | 565.59$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.17 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 36c | 559.32$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 46c | 514.43$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.78 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Spurs | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Spurs | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Spurs | 54c | 470.18$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Spurs | 52c | 424$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.52 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82f…3a37backed Spurs | 59c | 384.2$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 46c | 300$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Thunder | 44c | 265.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Spurs | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Thunder | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Thunder | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…5bdfbacked Spurs | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Thunder | 35c | 163.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Spurs | 54c | 133.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 46c | 129$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…7834backed Spurs | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Spurs | 54c | 120.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spurs | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Spurs | 55c | 101.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Spurs | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Thunder | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Thunder | 46c | 79.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Thunder | 46c | 73.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Spurs | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder | 39c | 68.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 40c | 56.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Spurs | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Thunder | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Thunder | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…adbfbacked Spurs | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…5f76backed Thunder | 47c | 37.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Spurs | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Spurs | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…ae60backed Thunder | 43c | 26.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 52c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.