NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59ebd2e4121d29cd4da898a9fa1681c5ecf1cc1fad375ab872d6a8f4da061d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 44c | 2,827$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 45c | 2,651$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.48 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder | 55c | 2,010$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.4 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Thunder | 55c | 1,615$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 56c | 1,202$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.37 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 43c | 961.6$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Thunder | 60c | 835.05$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Thunder | 55c | 361.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Thunder | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 54c | 157.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Spurs | 44c | 105.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…4153backed Thunder | 69c | 88.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 31c | 88.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Spurs | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Spurs | 44c | 83.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…593bbacked Thunder | 42c | 79.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Spurs | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Spurs | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Spurs | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…db7fbacked Thunder | 59c | 48.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Spurs | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Spurs | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Spurs | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 51c | 41.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Thunder | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…410bbacked Thunder | 54c | 35.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Thunder | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Spurs | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Thunder | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…18d2backed Thunder | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Thunder | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Thunder | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…6e5abacked Thunder | 62c | 24.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Thunder | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Spurs | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 56c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Thunder | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Thunder | 57c | 22.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Thunder | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Thunder | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Thunder | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.