NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d02482eb88754fd0a19771de271cb1257552ec47c2cf0ba964324a159bee0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Spurs | 49c | 70,000$34,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,600 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 51c | 59,946$30,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,334.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 52c | 9,904$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,149.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Spurs | 48c | 5,161$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.07 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Thunder | 51c | 4,430$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.3 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Spurs | 50c | 2,998$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.38 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder | 52c | 2,616$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Spurs | 48c | 2,612$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.89 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Thunder | 54c | 2,610$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…abbdbacked Spurs | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…4fabbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Thunder | 50c | 1,947$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.43 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 49c | 1,459$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Spurs | 52c | 1,035$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 52c | 1,007$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.57 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Spurs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 49c | 652.14$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Spurs | 45c | 508.89$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.89 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 50c | 441.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Spurs | 43c | 426.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.29 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Thunder | 49c | 399.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Spurs | 51c | 391.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.96 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 47c | 291.21$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…2731backed Thunder | 51c | 274.95$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Spurs | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 55c | 260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Thunder | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Thunder | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Spurs | 46c | 186.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…faa6backed Thunder | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Thunder | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Thunder | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 55c | 165.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Thunder | 60c | 145.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Thunder | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Thunder | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Thunder | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Thunder | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Thunder | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Spurs | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Spurs | 51c | 97.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Thunder | 55c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Thunder | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Thunder | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Spurs | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 55c | 63.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Thunder | 50c | 56.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…8defbacked Thunder | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.6wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Thunder | 50c | 44.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…7b81backed Thunder | 52c | 42.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…8b4abacked Thunder | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…593bbacked Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Spurs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…ce8abacked Thunder | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…9fa0backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Thunder | 50c | 35.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135a…3b1dbacked Thunder | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c6…a645backed Spurs | 45c | 34.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 56c | 33.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b9…9130backed Thunder | 55c | 27.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…bf6abacked Spurs | 47c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Spurs | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder | 54c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Thunder | 54c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…ad76backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffbf…cc59backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.