NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x353362e290bfd19324ca09fd952899fde91236ab43829b1aa1d45a076fd22d26

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,637 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3414…067abacked Under	52c	7,000$3,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,640	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	49c	5,076$2,511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,565.73	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under	4c	4,236$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.48	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Over	48c	4,000$1,920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,080	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	50c	2,687$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.53	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	2,291$1,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145.33	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under	54c	2,239$1,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.13	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x845b…9041backed Under	51c	2,050$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e6…265bbacked Over	49c	2,050$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,045.5	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	48c	1,696$814 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$882.08	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	46c	1,601$737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$864.8	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	1,398$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.89	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	1,174$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.72	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Under	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Over	53c	817.98$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.45	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	702.66$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.33	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over	50c	644.96$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.48	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Under	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	52c	408$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.16	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under	51c	394.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Under	12c	300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	54c	252.15$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.16	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	53c	250$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	359	42.1%151 W · 208 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	78c	200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Over	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	48c	199.97$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.99	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	45c	189.83$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.46	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbaa…59b8backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	49c	185$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.35	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	176$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.48	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Under	45c	172$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	47c	148.94$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	54c	119.16$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under	51c	104$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.04	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Under	53c	86$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.58	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under	51c	78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.78	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	48c	65.8$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.22	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Over	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	479	48.6%233 W · 246 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aad…ff47backed Under	73c	60.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.27	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Under	46c	59$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under	26c	58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Under	51c	56.76$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	139	45.3%63 W · 76 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474b…c5b1backed Under	52c	55.67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Under	51c	51.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.11	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-12.3wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Over	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a81…b783backed Under	50c	39.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-6.8wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Over	47c	37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.61	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e78…fcb4backed Over	49c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	49c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	69c	31.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…5f0abacked Under	53c	28.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26fc…2286backed Over	49c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.28	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5373…e46bbacked Under	52c	27.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Over	47c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Over	47c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Over	49c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.73	58	50%29 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Over	51c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.27	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Under	51c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Over	47c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc157…bd5cbacked Over	54c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.74	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed Under	54c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under	55c	18.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5this page
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Spurs won
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Spurs won
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Spurs won
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Spurs won
Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineThunder won
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event