TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Heat, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,696,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,780,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,696,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 813 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf98d…7adbbacked Celtics72c200,018$144,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,033.911258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat28c157,158$43,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,846.082,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Heat0c123,611$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.421735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Heat0c106,584$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Celtics73c79,489$58,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,461.9117354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics69c56,561$39,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,262.831,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Heat28c55,833$15,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,650.0127424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat30c52,427$15,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,614.5650653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Celtics71c48,014$34,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,947.0672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Celtics60c41,086$24,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,545.059641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat27c40,553$11,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,106.481,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Heat2c35,135$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.9418518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Celtics71c33,098$23,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,737.7236359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Celtics72c26,382$18,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,465.272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat28c24,576$6,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,985.834,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0004,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Heat24c18,448$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,426.4421923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Celtics51c18,011$9,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,845.222457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat29c17,339$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.891,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d56…1e2dbacked Heat30c16,667$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Heat31c16,129$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Heat2c15,646$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.685832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Celtics72c15,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.9618045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat30c14,379$4,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,278.261,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Heat43c13,600$5,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,796.9918453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics72c13,108$9,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,673.574,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Celtics68c12,713$8,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,068.1724053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Celtics70c11,581$8,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.671,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b2…cf16backed Heat30c11,500$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4501330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Celtics69c11,154$7,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.7934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Heat18c10,836$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Celtics71c10,526$7,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.1959646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Heat19c10,450$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.881,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Heat30c10,000$3,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,038.1144648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Heat27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7004035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Heat30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Heat28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat32c9,884$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Heat28c9,834$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.7714549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Heat29c9,500$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.9447028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics70c8,717$6,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat32c8,533$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.273,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Celtics73c8,414$6,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2711,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7bf…c638backed Heat30c8,333$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat37c8,218$3,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Heat21c8,045$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.251,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat29c7,873$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,276.792,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Heat30c7,095$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Celtics73c7,000$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics73c6,218$4,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.893,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Heat31c6,100$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8911,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Celtics69c5,883$4,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.67252.8%38 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Heat28c5,866$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.4440350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Heat28c5,825$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Celtics65c5,796$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.1339349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat28c5,449$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.8585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Celtics69c5,088$3,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.8766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Celtics60c5,083$3,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.7976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat1c5,050$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Heat28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Heat30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50013148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Heat30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9712147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Celtics69c4,999$3,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.6814945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Celtics70c4,874$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.4115274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Heat27c4,600$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.541,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf247…e269backed Heat0c4,425$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524731.2%77 W · 170 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Celtics69c3,914$2,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.8830947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Heat51c3,898$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9725…2365backed Celtics73c3,500$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9553259.4%19 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Heat16c3,479$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.881,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Heat40c3,387$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.4483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Heat34c3,347$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.282,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat27c3,290$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.72,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Celtics70c3,273$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.6844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Heat31c3,219$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.421538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec32…1634backed Celtics69c3,125$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.761546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Heat50c3,000$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Heat29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9816641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Celtics67c2,998$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.931044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Heat29c2,930$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.2734227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a8…3d3fbacked Heat31c2,924$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.55139.2%20 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+63.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Celtics69c2,904$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.0947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Celtics69c2,828$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.451,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaceb…6f8ebacked Celtics72c2,800$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7842055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Celtics60c2,767$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.6713435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6394…9bb3backed Heat27c2,763$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.013565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Heat34c2,710$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.115046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a23…fa9bbacked Heat36c2,503$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.522958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11b5…0d05backed Heat40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002536%9 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Heat17c2,350$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4812541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Celtics68c2,276$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.193455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Celtics68c2,218$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.951,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Celtics76c2,215$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.262,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Heat23c2,199$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…316bbacked Heat24c2,159$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed Heat24c2,115$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.565044%22 W · 28 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fdb…6404backed Heat19c2,086$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40053141.8%222 W · 309 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Heat30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…c852backed Heat30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003933.3%13 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa47c…14c9backed Heat1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.