NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81fc23bdfc72aa88e9fbab9b937e2f14e0d5971331711854ebbd48f00e1b4825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 17,477$8,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,726.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…a11abacked Under | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b73…18a4backed Under | 50c | 6,486$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,243 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 6,116$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.84 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…ad22backed Under | 49c | 5,978$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 4,857$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.68 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 3,466$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.8 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 2,122$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 52c | 784$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.53 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 50c | 732$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 49c | 616$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 564.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 367$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 312.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 51c | 290.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 50c | 287$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 13c | 283.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 243$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 52c | 231.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 231.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 51c | 209$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Under | 51c | 163.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 12c | 124.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 92.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 52c | 83.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 66.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…440cbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.