NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd474eb4d1091be14aef86b6ebd1ad45fecf2c5822ecba8c7bf34ddda401e37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 8,741$3,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,042.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 59c | 7,336$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.59 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Over | 43c | 2,393$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 2,067$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.52 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Under | 58c | 1,987$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.71 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 44c | 1,942$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.58 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 1,872$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,748$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 58c | 1,379$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 1,305$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 61c | 1,087$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 38c | 1,017$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.64 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 16c | 913$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 45c | 802.22$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.22 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 788$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 596.43$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 587.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 568.53$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 443.65$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.44 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 302.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.59 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Under | 20c | 201.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Under | 58c | 172.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 171.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 80c | 171.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Under | 58c | 167.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 62c | 160.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 42c | 141$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Under | 63c | 95.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Under | 62c | 80.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 56.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…6d88backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…8efabacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…9585backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…dd67backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…eefabacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…64f1backed Under | 62c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.