NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635358b3b991615107d19fc3e4b75bf49a173f20e4ce39e284c3544d1cc8b192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 15,743$7,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,653.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 56c | 7,765$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.18 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Under | 53c | 4,692$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Under | 56c | 4,417$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.52 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 53c | 3,180$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.4 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 2,622$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 47c | 2,414$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.35 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -10.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 45c | 1,133$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.05 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 1,128$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.54 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…01a3backed Over | 48c | 997.92$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 741$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Over | 46c | 697.83$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 480$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 471.76$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 56c | 414.29$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 51c | 413.73$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 338$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Under | 53c | 304.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Over | 49c | 282.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 237$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 52c | 185.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 52c | 185.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 53c | 183$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 147.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 47c | 146.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…dc0fbacked Under | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 124.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…8bfdbacked Under | 52c | 96.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 52c | 92.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d1a9backed Under | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 55.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…5abfbacked Over | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…4a00backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 34.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 44c | 24.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…9585backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…d878backed Under | 57c | 18.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.