NBA · resolved market
Spread: Wizards (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57120756db3850bdb02a985e0bad377a2d7116ead79ebf54c1899fc3ff5e6992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Wizards, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $328,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Wizards | 49c | 207,058$101,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,623.96 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nets | 51c | 163,464$82,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,725.83 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Wizards | 50c | 80,000$39,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,200 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Nets | 51c | 80,000$40,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,800 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Nets | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Nets | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 51c | 15,249$7,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,777.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Wizards | 49c | 12,867$6,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,601.21 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nets | 51c | 4,683$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.09 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nets | 50c | 2,988$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.12 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Nets | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Nets | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Wizards | 49c | 1,800$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Wizards | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Wizards | 50c | 1,406$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Nets | 51c | 1,027$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed Wizards | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Wizards | 49c | 720$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Wizards | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Wizards | 49c | 492.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 25c | 416.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 57c | 415.24$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Nets | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Wizards | 49c | 281.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Wizards | 47c | 235.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Wizards | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nets | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Nets | 53c | 158.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Nets | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nets | 34c | 123$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Wizards | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wizards | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Wizards | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…ba76backed Nets | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wizards | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Wizards | 49c | 67.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Wizards | 48c | 62.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Wizards | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Wizards | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Wizards | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…536ebacked Wizards | 49c | 48.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Nets | 52c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Nets | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…39a9backed Nets | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Nets | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Nets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Nets | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nets | 45c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…368abacked Nets | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wizards (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nets (-0.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-1.5)Wizards won
- 1H Spread: Wizards (-2.5)Wizards won
- Nets vs. WizardsWizards won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Nets (-1.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.