TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cardinals vs. 49ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof Cardinals, 49ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,381,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,473,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,381,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Cardinals49c1,353,722$661,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,775.238344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed 49ers51c381,046$194,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186,402.0822950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked 49ers53c175,698$92,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,864.0524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed 49ers51c135,959$69,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,619.9112352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked 49ers51c130,000$66,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,70017454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked 49ers52c100,000$52,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,90010566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed 49ers51c82,245$41,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,342.524551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed 49ers51c71,500$36,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,0356645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked 49ers52c67,846$35,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,320.0722548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked 49ers51c60,603$31,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,582.8414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals47c58,599$27,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,271.7741851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed 49ers71c51,720$36,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,838.499944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers53c48,988$26,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,941.1347738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked 49ers57c43,134$24,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,469.410061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked 49ers46c40,000$18,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,499.9811755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked 49ers51c37,500$19,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,37511146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Cardinals56c33,625$18,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,749.994250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed 49ers53c33,300$17,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,58410333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Cardinals45c32,700$14,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,723.0330043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46f…2003backed Cardinals45c27,916$12,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,562.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed 49ers51c22,020$11,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8101931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed 49ers59c20,195$11,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,227.9910639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Cardinals41c19,735$8,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,091.3512843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x702b…d274backed 49ers53c16,459$8,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,738.915100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked 49ers51c15,677$7,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,723.1131848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed 49ers51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 49ers51c14,118$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,917.8239754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers37c13,730$5,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,711.0660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed 49ers52c12,997$6,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,215.778856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Cardinals50c11,685$5,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,822.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers50c11,581$5,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,780.583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Cardinals42c10,608$4,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,455.4610650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked 49ers56c10,067$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.557754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked 49ers52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8007042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed 49ers52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8002259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+246.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed 49ers57c8,788$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,787.99152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cardinals46c8,696$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed 49ers52c8,175$4,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.9929356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Cardinals34c8,105$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.7227339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde2c…587bbacked Cardinals78c8,041$6,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,271.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed 49ers57c8,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4401040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals51c7,909$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.2319551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Cardinals51c6,395$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,261.453040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Cardinals55c6,205$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.8920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf209…97e1backed Cardinals49c6,157$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked 49ers50c6,003$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,991.626544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed 49ers52c5,850$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8085837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed 49ers42c5,499$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,203.54436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed 49ers53c5,300$2,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4917241.7%30 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe14…11eebacked Cardinals43c5,137$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.11283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers50c5,035$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.471,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Cardinals38c5,029$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9361947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cardinals43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Cardinals58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9001136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 49ers58c4,971$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.463548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed 49ers56c4,880$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 49ers51c4,873$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,373.3537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed 49ers46c4,830$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.4311139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbb…374abacked Cardinals55c4,696$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed 49ers52c4,604$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.358648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Cardinals43c4,557$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.356339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked 49ers42c4,553$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.525641.1%23 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Cardinals44c4,471$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.2654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed 49ers52c4,469$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.4331854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cardinals43c4,017$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.9953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Cardinals42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68015044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed 49ers52c4,000$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,94026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Cardinals49c4,000$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab43…f82cbacked Cardinals54c3,990$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed 49ers52c3,838$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed 49ers54c3,765$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.984266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed 49ers48c3,484$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.388946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Cardinals42c3,255$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3674252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed 49ers54c3,008$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.6810552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked 49ers59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23014248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed 49ers33c2,854$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.9661148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked 49ers52c2,600$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24811750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked 49ers52c2,581$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.872846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Cardinals48c2,533$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.918343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 49ers47c2,521$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.1927644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cardinals49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22535848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 49ers51c2,353$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.9468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed 49ers51c2,308$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.072937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Cardinals43c2,292$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.44761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Cardinals43c2,200$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94628447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 49ers48c2,183$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.6227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed Cardinals46c2,179$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed 49ers53c2,113$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.214957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 49ers56c2,096$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.8750242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked 49ers57c2,029$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.666936.2%25 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Cardinals49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed 49ers53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.9822434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Cardinals78c1,991$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.311464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed 49ers53c1,966$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.1941947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Cardinals49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7353145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Cardinals45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67519543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Cardinals2c1,426$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Cardinals46c1,304$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8413842%58 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed 49ers16c1,250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0504131.7%13 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+86.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 49ers49c1,199$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.8864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.