NFL · resolved market
Spread: SF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32aa52f4dee55b5fa1a324e84fa982da7bd1e6689133ce45a8e26970f7e8f315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARIof SF, ARI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked SF | 50c | 5,585$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.5 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked ARI | 50c | 5,357$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,681.77 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed ARI | 52c | 1,918$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.75 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked ARI | 46c | 1,269$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.5 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…404ebacked SF | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked ARI | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed SF | 52c | 865.38$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked SF | 50c | 660$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed SF | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed SF | 48c | 392.31$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked SF | 58c | 331.9$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed SF | 48c | 276.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked ARI | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed ARI | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed SF | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked ARI | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked SF | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked ARI | 49c | 80.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked SF | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…2febbacked SF | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed ARI | 49c | 34.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked SF | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SF (-1.5)this page
- ARI vs. SF: O/U 51.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. 49ers49ers won
- Spread: SF (-3.5)ARI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.