TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Ravens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, Ravens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,037,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,376,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,037,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 798 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Lions32c624,875$199,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424,914.693259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Ravens68c500,000$340,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340,0008344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Ravens65c243,577$159,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159,167.6512352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Ravens60c234,298$139,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,931.1647738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ravens68c179,313$121,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,932.617454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Ravens52c115,212$60,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,229.8711755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Ravens31c112,700$34,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,396.6822950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c3…a26cbacked Ravens69c106,000$73,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,1401643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Ravens67c105,555$71,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,167.0610566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Ravens68c100,000$68,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,999.9410061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Ravens64c90,555$57,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,600.264250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Lions79c90,275$71,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,188.112144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Lions42c89,593$38,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,578.7941851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Lions31c75,988$23,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,371.627035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lions32c74,300$23,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,52427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lions75c71,068$53,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,412.149944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Ravens61c69,621$42,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,375.0930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Lions50c61,704$30,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,889.3914351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lions31c50,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,399.9330743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Lions26c39,790$10,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,268.592025%5 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Ravens68c39,000$26,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,519.971656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d89…5846backed Ravens69c36,213$24,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,986.9730%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Lions45c33,456$15,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,430.089445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Ravens39c31,585$12,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,296.67736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lions53c30,671$16,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,549.3160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Ravens54c29,592$16,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,107.6112138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Lions63c25,807$16,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,638.123100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Lions32c24,097$7,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,385.755527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed Ravens0c22,500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.32142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Lions32c21,819$6,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,937.0829356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ravens20c21,522$4,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,378.3264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Lions32c20,313$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,812.513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Ravens68c20,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.995236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbb…374abacked Lions40c19,168$7,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,569.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lions33c16,168$5,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,869.453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b8…1235backed Ravens65c16,130$10,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,513.04560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Ravens68c15,912$10,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,820.157440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Ravens69c15,857$10,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,941.318650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Lions31c15,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,299.9514342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Ravens58c14,560$8,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.85048%24 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Ravens68c14,480$9,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,846.4925137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Ravens66c14,455$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5005330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lions31c13,893$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,541.5583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Lions32c13,785$4,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,374.067346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Lions44c13,623$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,638.0422548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Lions73c12,073$8,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,296.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Lions32c12,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,159.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Ravens43c11,996$5,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,191.9341947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions32c11,647$3,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.9644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Ravens68c11,000$7,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4808856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed Lions66c10,946$7,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,729.54771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick72cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Lions32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Ravens68c10,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8002556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lions31c9,835$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,785.5510333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Lions32c9,344$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,353.7511252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x668c…9ff6backed Lions33c8,900$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ravens40c8,357$3,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,379.7750242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Lions32c8,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4402454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Ravens69c8,000$5,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5202733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Ravens69c7,300$5,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,037.031338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Lions32c7,032$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,781.575837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Lions32c6,866$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,668.632638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Ravens37c6,749$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.7414147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2dd…f2f5backed Lions32c6,250$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,250.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Lions59c6,074$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.043366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Ravens69c6,000$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1404264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Ravens48c5,853$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.8631848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Ravens68c5,765$3,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,912.1713430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x68ee…6f8fbacked Lions32c5,540$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick40cpaid+137.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Lions37c5,464$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.8714445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c15…7a9fbacked Ravens69c5,363$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,700.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Lions38c5,200$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.93948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lions40c5,184$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.1727348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd4…b11dbacked Ravens69c5,158$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,559.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Lions32c5,107$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,496.8424351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Ravens48c5,089$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.356544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked Lions71c5,063$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.271266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Lions32c5,034$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.1227339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Ravens65c5,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Ravens68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Ravens70c5,000$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.3313843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Ravens47c4,569$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Ravens68c4,500$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06014757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Lions31c4,496$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,102.5816836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Ravens6c4,435$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5568446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Lions36c4,434$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.384422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Lions32c4,428$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.762552%13 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x33ec…2682backed Ravens68c4,410$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Lions55c4,153$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.673450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…1a08backed Ravens68c4,118$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Ravens58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3202941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Lions32c3,981$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,707.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Lions33c3,792$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.822347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf719…eae4backed Lions32c3,755$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x251b…143cbacked Lions38c3,526$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.86055%33 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e5…3c18backed Ravens69c3,500$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Lions29c3,457$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.248145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Lions50c3,417$1,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.7210462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6ac…b899backed Ravens68c3,395$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.292937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…8562backed Ravens42c3,351$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.941540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.