TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: BAL (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DETof BAL, DET
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0549…c052backed DET50c56,051$28,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,025.555855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed BAL51c45,353$23,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,130.2519553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked BAL50c33,068$16,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,53417454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked BAL50c31,111$15,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,666.6110566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed DET51c30,000$15,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7055560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed DET49c25,191$12,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,847.1917647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed BAL51c19,608$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed DET49c18,568$9,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,429.5327454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked DET49c12,888$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,572.8614351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed BAL49c9,605$4,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,708.383040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked DET49c8,887$4,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,532.1524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked DET50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed BAL56c5,263$2,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,947.3760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed DET50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed BAL50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed DET49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55010552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed BAL49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.9918435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed BAL51c4,902$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed DET49c4,000$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.3226650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed DET51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.579152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed DET50c3,678$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,83911139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed BAL51c3,074$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked BAL50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed DET45c2,864$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.6441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked DET49c2,703$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.8841851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked BAL51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0716544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked BAL51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02014248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed DET50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked BAL52c1,896$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.8629751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed DET48c1,697$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3912352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed DET49c1,138$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.6983447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed DET49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed BAL51c1,020$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52014344.1%63 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7988…a671backed BAL62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked BAL51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5103441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed BAL51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51025137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39a8…f170backed BAL51c956$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.561118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-67.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked BAL51c900$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45926648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7b…6e6dbacked BAL51c851.94$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked BAL50c802.2$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.111547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed DET50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-49.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed BAL51c783.73$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed BAL51c623.53$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3186050%30 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked BAL50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed DET51c592.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.862462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed BAL51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed BAL45c561.36$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3627644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed BAL50c517.36$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9361148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked BAL50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25028556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b15…a031backed BAL50c475$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.54065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked BAL55c454.09$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.752138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed DET50c402$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2630442.4%129 W · 175 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed BAL51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed BAL50c346.02$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.012326.1%6 W · 17 L-6.5wins-0.28per pick54cpaid-55.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed BAL50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed DET51c280$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13814949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked DET50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed BAL51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.510537.1%39 W · 66 L-12.5wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked DET49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.522548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…5322backed BAL51c241.14$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.981844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked BAL51c204$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0415746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed DET60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8010462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24ac…6df6backed BAL50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019261.5%118 W · 74 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed BAL51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed BAL51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x933b…ed9abacked BAL40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked DET51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0817548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed BAL52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011744.4%52 W · 65 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e3…68b9backed DET52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.316839.7%27 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe611…0ae4backed BAL55c183.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006761.2%41 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked BAL45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.514337.8%54 W · 89 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5340…5e2bbacked BAL51c136.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4710750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed DET60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7312…d40dbacked BAL51c119.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.911866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed BAL51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022745.4%103 W · 124 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BAL52c106$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8264747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed BAL50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5055345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked BAL51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5118151.9%94 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4b…5f8bbacked DET50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…9dc3backed BAL51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed DET51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.046055%33 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e11…40ffbacked BAL51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc08f…14fbbacked DET50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecf5…6a01backed BAL51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x496d…55f0backed DET50c74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21aa…aa43backed BAL50c74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f8…8bbdbacked BAL51c74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed BAL51c68.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515855.7%88 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…2febbacked DET50c68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed BAL50c64.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1414537.2%54 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed BAL48c60.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.987526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c11…02c8backed BAL51c58.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed BAL50c57.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0731032.6%101 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked BAL46c57.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.122123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked BAL50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517060.6%103 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked BAL50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517047.1%80 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed DET49c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed12…86f8backed BAL50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202010%2 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-78.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8740…9da7backed BAL51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5874backed BAL50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.