NFL · resolved market
Spread: BAL (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ddf509202e558c81e050f696afc817dfaaa41fa777964e690fe7f47d7027de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DETof BAL, DET
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed BAL | 48c | 753.5$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.68 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed DET | 52c | 605.5$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed DET | 54c | 585.92$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.7 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed BAL | 44c | 370$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked BAL | 48c | 237.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked DET | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked BAL | 47c | 134.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…6af9backed DET | 55c | 130.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed BAL | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed BAL | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed DET | 51c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…b062backed DET | 53c | 70.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed DET | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…784ebacked BAL | 40c | 64.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed BAL | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked DET | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked DET | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed BAL | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed BAL | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked DET | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed DET | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked DET | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed DET | 52c | 36.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed BAL | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked DET | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BAL (-5.5)this page
- DET vs. BAL: O/U 54.5Over won
- DET vs. BAL: O/U 62.5Over won
- DET vs. BAL: O/U 64.5Over won
- DET vs. BAL: O/U 66.5Over won
- Lions vs. RavensLions won
- Spread: BAL (-3.5)DET won
- Spread: BAL (-4.5)DET won
- Spread: BAL (-6.5)DET won
- Spread: BAL (-7.5)DET won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.