NFL · resolved market

Spread: BAL (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4fa2a686880b64ab161c3079094d289785cdd24f1795a83843875714c4c327

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: DETof BAL, DET
Resolved: Sep 23, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,009 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8cd4…b11dbacked BAL	57c	6,873$3,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,917.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked DET	43c	6,660$2,864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,796.33	225	48.4%109 W · 116 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed DET	44c	6,120$2,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,445.45	419	47.3%198 W · 221 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed BAL	60c	5,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed BAL	49c	1,458$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.4	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed DET	44c	1,091$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$605.49	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed DET	45c	861.37$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.37	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked BAL	42c	558$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.48	143	37.8%54 W · 89 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked DET	55c	525$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.25	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked BAL	56c	446.43$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed DET	42c	440.35$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac0…b10abacked BAL	42c	404.91$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.6	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed DET	58c	400$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	104	62.5%65 W · 39 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked BAL	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	52	50%26 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed DET	58c	328.04$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed DET	47c	318.75$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.75	99	40.4%40 W · 59 L	-8.4wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed BAL	58c	300$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed BAL	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	276	44.2%122 W · 154 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed DET	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	159	44%70 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked BAL	55c	198.61$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.24	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked BAL	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f23…b19ebacked BAL	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-6.6wins	-0.10per pick	59cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53f1…9434backed BAL	57c	140.35$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fa…0702backed DET	49c	140$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.63per pick	37cpaid	+209.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb783…08b2backed BAL	55c	121.8$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed BAL	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed BAL	55c	75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6271…784ebacked BAL	39c	74.56$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked BAL	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed BAL	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	55	67.3%37 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed BAL	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked BAL	53c	28.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	397	54.4%216 W · 181 L	+26.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: BAL (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event