Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d4b8be262719f769832aed72e4608db377600814bd9d51d905e70d3c5090e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 65c | 1,217$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.95 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…9c35backed Yes | 35c | 1,207$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 78c | 1,088$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.47 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 77c | 1,058$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.24 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Yes | 22c | 1,010$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330c…2371backed Yes | 23c | 991.3$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 20c | 897.25$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…3093backed Yes | 22c | 802.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 78c | 694.77$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.85 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 673.85$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 22c | 495.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 430.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 21c | 278.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 24c | 125.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 21c | 90.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…b909backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes | 26c | 54.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…632fbacked No | 80c | 31.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 27.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21?Yes won
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.