Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b94e1c9c7b7d77465b2114bfd4ba6939de2c4795a843b3d148ae6bb79b5788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,371,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,124,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,371,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 23,610$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.29 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 10c | 20,902$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…9eadbacked Yes | 5c | 18,489$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 54c | 15,930$8,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400.57 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…a736backed Yes | 31c | 13,719$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 11,505$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 74c | 11,448$8,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.8 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 10,941$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…8e4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,299$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 7c | 9,251$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.38 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 7c | 7,980$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.91 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 7c | 7,892$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…06a7backed Yes | 7c | 7,219$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd83…28f1backed Yes | 2c | 6,267$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…fd89backed Yes | 8c | 6,249$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf4…20f4backed Yes | 6c | 5,433$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…20d5backed Yes | 2c | 5,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 10c | 5,232$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…c256backed Yes | 2c | 5,182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 2c | 4,648$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Yes | 1c | 4,290$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0e…d5acbacked Yes | 4c | 4,219$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed Yes | 2c | 4,094$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,086$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 3c | 3,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes | 9c | 3,700$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Yes | 9c | 3,685$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…6c45backed Yes | 7c | 3,414$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…0144backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 8c | 3,264$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…a038backed Yes | 7c | 3,063$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,924$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…3115backed Yes | 6c | 2,921$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff3f…3388backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,813$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…5dc9backed Yes | 2c | 2,565$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…1b26backed Yes | 12c | 2,529$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…f63fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…dc27backed Yes | 9c | 2,273$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 7c | 2,194$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,975$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…4e39backed Yes | 2c | 1,954$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…73f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,872$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…aa29backed Yes | 3c | 1,795$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…dd2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,794$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 7c | 1,773$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,745$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 1c | 1,708$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…fa1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,563$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,513$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 10c | 1,510$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…cbe5backed Yes | 19c | 1,510$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…5711backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed No | 54c | 1,489$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…4fa3backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…14a7backed Yes | 7c | 1,417$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9341…8489backed Yes | 11c | 1,361$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…8b30backed Yes | 7c | 1,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccd…47d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,307$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…6518backed Yes | 2c | 1,303$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…44debacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae88…8f5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,298$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04c…2a7abacked Yes | 68c | 1,297$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b7…5d0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,284$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,234$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…c6c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,192$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 1,183$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…ddacbacked Yes | 7c | 1,121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b3…1ddfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 10c | 1,098$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,075$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c3…ec8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,058$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc325…c87fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24d…37e8backed Yes | 10c | 989$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 10c | 853.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 9c | 841.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 3c | 800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 36c | 793.23$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.02 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…d09cbacked Yes | 52c | 787.97$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 8c | 781.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 6c | 752.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 4c | 750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed Yes | 16c | 740$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…76c6backed Yes | 2c | 670$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…93f7backed Yes | 10c | 622.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf468…ba81backed Yes | 9c | 603.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…ea00backed Yes | 37c | 600.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.