China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52eac6d8a04d9e66bba43065ac13e2ae91d33622e83de44a97feb4aa56e75607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $436,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $436,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc11a…e32bbacked No | 1c | 30,780$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f3a2backed No | 0c | 22,932$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…df2bbacked No | 8c | 20,947$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 30c | 18,364$5,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,548.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…2746backed No | 70c | 17,917$12,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,504.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…4646backed Yes | 28c | 15,456$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,103.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 7c | 13,173$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…50d1backed Yes | 44c | 12,135$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,735.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked No | 2c | 10,326$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 79c | 9,560$7,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 8,756$6,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.91 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…8981backed No | 2c | 7,531$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 6,768$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…35b6backed No | 15c | 6,523$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 79c | 6,465$5,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…908fbacked No | 16c | 6,256$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…7175backed No | 2c | 6,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…ef49backed No | 4c | 4,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…1c2cbacked Yes | 45c | 4,143$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…d588backed No | 1c | 4,045$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 30c | 3,944$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 8c | 3,842$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…d33fbacked Yes | 69c | 3,767$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…a811backed Yes | 60c | 3,629$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 55c | 3,539$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked No | 71c | 3,419$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…7edfbacked No | 18c | 3,293$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked No | 3c | 3,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 26c | 2,980$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 20cpaid | +296.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 69c | 2,938$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.65 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed No | 19c | 2,617$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16b…3a57backed No | 7c | 2,400$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 13c | 2,370$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.52 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…790ebacked No | 6c | 2,356$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 39c | 2,303$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 5c | 2,239$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 57c | 2,222$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 3c | 2,079$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +733.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…05f5backed No | 19c | 1,997$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,981$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked No | 17c | 1,978$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…25e0backed No | 5c | 1,929$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…6939backed No | 30c | 1,809$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…953fbacked No | 16c | 1,770$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8d91backed No | 2c | 1,733$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed No | 48c | 1,684$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 8c | 1,666$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…2855backed Yes | 50c | 1,575$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…7965backed No | 2c | 1,406$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed No | 33c | 1,357$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 34c | 1,351$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed No | 3c | 1,329$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 16c | 1,251$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,250$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…4ba4backed Yes | 72c | 1,239$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa926…e124backed No | 2c | 1,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…a7bdbacked No | 1c | 1,180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 9c | 1,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed Yes | 46c | 1,072$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked No | 2c | 1,059$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 3c | 1,007$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 1,004$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.47 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…7a35backed No | 7c | 1,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…7802backed Yes | 50c | 998.18$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…a84ebacked Yes | 49c | 985.3$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 39c | 957.27$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 5c | 956.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 41c | 799.94$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…6b27backed No | 2c | 780.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed No | 35c | 774.48$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 2c | 738.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9a7cbacked No | 18c | 713.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked No | 3c | 701.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…a267backed Yes | 44c | 645.85$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked Yes | 20c | 640$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 38c | 600$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 573.01$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa031…a701backed Yes | 38c | 551.58$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…2aa8backed No | 11c | 547.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…b732backed No | 41c | 532.04$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes | 50c | 524.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…730dbacked No | 10c | 511.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ec0fbacked No | 30c | 511.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecc…f95dbacked No | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 34c | 492.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…04cfbacked No | 22c | 443.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c44cbacked No | 6c | 431.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 70c | 429.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 33c | 408.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 46c | 399.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d52…5bf5backed No | 6c | 378$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…f3f1backed Yes | 21c | 363.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9abbbacked No | 5c | 355$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f0…3c3dbacked No | 21c | 347.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…0979backed No | 78c | 336.54$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…de17backed No | 5c | 328.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed No | 22c | 321.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 24c | 315.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.