China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932f80acca31754f28a892d2fa2c4de0c3e5bc0d9172dd7b8fc86216d6f6e83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,844 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,758$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7f2fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,925$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,517$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,355$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,292$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 4c | 900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…46c9backed Yes | 4c | 612.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 589.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…0fd0backed Yes | 36c | 557.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…8838backed Yes | 24c | 495.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 74c | 426.87$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503e…825fbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…341fbacked Yes | 9c | 307.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…a6fcbacked No | 54c | 217.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 80c | 197.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked No | 72c | 159.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…a827backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84e…5dabbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.