China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51109a2d8f1f4d15d702d69783f41bee0440f9e36ad4337d5fe00f8c864aaa0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 42c | 18,632$7,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,881.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 65c | 14,918$9,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,749.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…fa56backed Yes | 63c | 11,098$7,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,017.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed Yes | 49c | 7,490$3,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,670.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…b732backed No | 43c | 5,976$2,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,423.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…e3adbacked Yes | 62c | 5,588$3,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 43c | 4,700$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…fa45backed Yes | 62c | 4,593$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…c11bbacked Yes | 77c | 4,197$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 52c | 4,153$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.59 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 61c | 3,886$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…8e81backed Yes | 59c | 3,850$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 41c | 3,836$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…bb1abacked Yes | 61c | 3,145$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 38c | 3,056$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed No | 54c | 2,927$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed No | 37c | 2,750$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 31c | 2,499$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.49 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…6badbacked Yes | 61c | 2,402$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…7772backed No | 47c | 2,170$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +195%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 66c | 2,044$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 43c | 1,912$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc0…8126backed Yes | 63c | 1,910$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 64c | 1,813$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…3d77backed Yes | 42c | 1,804$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 60c | 1,775$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 35c | 1,770$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 41c | 1,700$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…1d82backed Yes | 60c | 1,671$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,650$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,556$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,534$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…51a8backed Yes | 40c | 1,519$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…5df4backed Yes | 47c | 1,490$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…e26ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,463$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…ad6dbacked No | 70c | 1,461$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,433$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 37c | 1,407$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 34c | 1,344$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 24c | 1,334$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 45c | 1,285$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…12ddbacked No | 62c | 1,279$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…09d1backed No | 43c | 1,212$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…6c0cbacked No | 47c | 1,047$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 47c | 1,031$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…f348backed Yes | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…b02dbacked Yes | 1c | 996$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…7a3ebacked Yes | 46c | 886.54$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 881.58$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +142%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes | 2c | 874.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…612abacked Yes | 55c | 871.29$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…c1cabacked Yes | 44c | 844.53$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…0398backed No | 60c | 828.16$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +267.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed No | 38c | 788.37$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed No | 42c | 772.43$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…15a1backed No | 66c | 770.56$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ba…9a84backed Yes | 67c | 744$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 56c | 737.99$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 65c | 707.35$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…b9c3backed Yes | 37c | 699.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 56c | 694.38$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 66c | 677.47$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83af…f56abacked Yes | 42c | 650.82$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 630$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ce…a827backed Yes | 58c | 574.24$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 36c | 565.37$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 40c | 564.25$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 5c | 563$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 46c | 544.01$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…dc1cbacked No | 63c | 533.78$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 52c | 524$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…1c5abacked Yes | 62c | 517.89$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0d…8ea3backed Yes | 66c | 516.87$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…6ecbbacked No | 40c | 505$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…7917backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed No | 39c | 490.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 43c | 487.78$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed Yes | 45c | 482.21$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 36c | 463.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…b0abbacked Yes | 31c | 459.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…826dbacked No | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 62c | 448.32$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 442.96$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 43c | 438$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…f572backed No | 49c | 407.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…1795backed Yes | 59c | 401.51$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c44cbacked No | 51c | 401.51$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…4189backed No | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 51c | 393.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Yes | 48c | 391.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 381.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 33c | 378.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…ebf1backed No | 66c | 378.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 67c | 370$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 57c | 359.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.