China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4894956ccffae7bb3fa6d7d3b260769cb1d5796ac3bfc75167f42f1e42bdf96e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29a…35b6backed No | 15c | 9,150$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…50d1backed Yes | 47c | 3,298$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11a…e32bbacked No | 1c | 2,876$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5b…a047backed No | 3c | 2,107$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 63c | 1,698$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 1,559$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.77 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 55c | 1,490$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…2746backed No | 75c | 1,300$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 12c | 752.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Yes | 43c | 730.19$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 18c | 700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…d33fbacked Yes | 64c | 625.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed Yes | 27c | 617.66$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c44cbacked Yes | 37c | 525.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 55c | 503.55$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…b732backed No | 51c | 464.48$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…0398backed Yes | 34c | 456.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +267.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 410.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 47c | 398.2$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa031…a701backed Yes | 50c | 384.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed No | 58c | 366.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 65c | 309.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed No | 66c | 303.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 44c | 298.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 50c | 240.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 15c | 228.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 18c | 175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 53c | 172.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1763backed No | 62c | 161.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…3f46backed No | 57c | 157.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 143.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 134.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked No | 12c | 130.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 124.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…1c2cbacked Yes | 42c | 118.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…0713backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…de17backed Yes | 48c | 75.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 80c | 61.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 33c | 61.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…0b3abacked Yes | 76c | 53.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes | 36c | 52.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…700bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +572.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 47.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 79c | 47.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 44.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…3965backed Yes | 49c | 40.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…f3f1backed Yes | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…8344backed Yes | 55c | 39.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…0321backed No | 61c | 38.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…f3d7backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…ef6bbacked No | 42c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 26.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.