China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5883e093e642062acb19820d91429ecd1d00ccb9011ac2f595dfd2cb8f40dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $564,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad7…b732backed No | 25c | 51,310$12,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,632.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…35b6backed No | 13c | 36,536$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 11c | 16,835$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…4646backed Yes | 78c | 13,427$10,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 5c | 12,025$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.24 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 76c | 11,487$8,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 77c | 10,537$8,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…d372backed Yes | 72c | 10,000$7,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 17c | 9,999$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 23c | 9,901$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8e…df12backed Yes | 78c | 8,348$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…2746backed Yes | 76c | 7,662$5,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 3c | 6,704$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 23c | 6,638$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 74c | 5,659$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 24c | 5,147$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed No | 3c | 4,800$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…8e81backed No | 9c | 4,779$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…ef57backed No | 3c | 4,331$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…4e36backed Yes | 67c | 4,120$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 78c | 3,918$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…4ba4backed No | 17c | 3,765$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…5614backed Yes | 78c | 3,693$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…a811backed Yes | 79c | 3,593$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…f1e1backed No | 25c | 3,457$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c44cbacked No | 23c | 3,143$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 78c | 3,132$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…0398backed No | 22c | 3,124$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +267.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 9c | 3,095$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 17c | 3,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…d33fbacked Yes | 76c | 2,909$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,789$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked No | 18c | 2,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…2271backed No | 45c | 2,722$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 22c | 2,676$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…4e26backed Yes | 77c | 2,600$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…9591backed Yes | 77c | 2,593$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…7a3ebacked Yes | 68c | 2,590$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 79c | 2,353$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…6ecbbacked No | 22c | 2,313$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 79c | 2,204$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…7802backed Yes | 77c | 2,195$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed No | 21c | 2,151$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,149$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…afd3backed No | 21c | 2,125$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed No | 24c | 2,097$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 72c | 2,054$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…f66fbacked No | 9c | 1,975$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed No | 19c | 1,956$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 78c | 1,948$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 19c | 1,943$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…3859backed Yes | 75c | 1,931$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 1,913$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…29aebacked Yes | 76c | 1,902$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 15c | 1,867$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…b9c3backed Yes | 72c | 1,800$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 27c | 1,672$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 1,602$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 25c | 1,589$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 1,583$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.21 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 19c | 1,572$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 5c | 1,569$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed No | 30c | 1,566$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…3f03backed Yes | 70c | 1,496$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked No | 23c | 1,400$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 25c | 1,351$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 1,343$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…89d7backed Yes | 79c | 1,327$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…8e81backed Yes | 76c | 1,313$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed No | 23c | 1,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ab…6473backed Yes | 71c | 1,261$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…6eecbacked Yes | 63c | 1,221$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…a267backed Yes | 77c | 1,221$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 5c | 1,204$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…7e50backed No | 26c | 1,143$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked No | 20c | 1,130$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 1,127$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5b…a047backed No | 10c | 1,122$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed No | 18c | 1,078$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 1,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed No | 25c | 1,066$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25f…084cbacked No | 45c | 1,066$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11a…e32bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 8c | 999.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Yes | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked No | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 30c | 971.16$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d55…f488backed Yes | 66c | 969.37$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 75c | 959.97$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 22c | 943.36$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…1986backed Yes | 76c | 847.79$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…b286backed Yes | 72c | 823.22$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…630ebacked Yes | 76c | 810.19$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…fa45backed Yes | 73c | 789.43$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 8c | 789.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 64c | 776.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…32c0backed No | 37c | 774.97$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 23c | 717.14$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.