China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa5a9291e907fa7bb271f7a130571236c2e4121d9f4a48db6172dea4ca03bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $620,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $572,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 512 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddae…33ccbacked No | 27c | 73,378$19,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,565.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked No | 73c | 38,121$27,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,310.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…d372backed No | 80c | 28,038$22,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,680.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…f0aabacked Yes | 73c | 24,695$18,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,027.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…c04cbacked Yes | 73c | 24,677$18,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,014.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…0c1bbacked Yes | 73c | 24,006$17,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,524.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…ca12backed No | 58c | 17,216$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,220.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…2a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 16,453$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8e16backed No | 49c | 15,049$7,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,601.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 14,943$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.09 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…fa45backed Yes | 15c | 9,946$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00bf…3a0ebacked Yes | 48c | 9,560$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e7…bd6cbacked Yes | 54c | 9,248$4,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed No | 29c | 8,485$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,008.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…26efbacked No | 52c | 8,429$4,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,078.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 52c | 6,976$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…434bbacked Yes | 4c | 6,900$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…1600backed Yes | 8c | 6,408$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 48c | 6,236$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 63c | 5,776$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…78aabacked Yes | 10c | 5,288$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…7917backed Yes | 53c | 5,083$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 28c | 4,699$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 41c | 4,618$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…8838backed Yes | 39c | 4,468$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 4,406$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 63c | 4,040$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed Yes | 5c | 3,956$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…1f2dbacked No | 40c | 3,859$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…ef49backed Yes | 57c | 3,544$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992c…79f6backed Yes | 5c | 3,253$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…8e81backed Yes | 6c | 3,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 33c | 3,226$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…f535backed Yes | 74c | 2,824$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4f…c922backed Yes | 6c | 2,628$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 71c | 2,620$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 55c | 2,582$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed No | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 48c | 2,425$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.46 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes | 65c | 2,422$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 77c | 2,365$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…e174backed Yes | 31c | 2,352$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 2,271$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.44 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…fe4fbacked No | 44c | 2,256$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…5da7backed Yes | 5c | 2,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 2,122$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,018$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 30c | 2,005$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…c7b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,981$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04f…6f22backed No | 54c | 1,980$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,949$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7f2fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,942$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,896$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,857$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,810$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…013bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,800$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed Yes | 72c | 1,768$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 48c | 1,734$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…12ddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,654$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 76c | 1,635$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 43c | 1,630$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,556$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…89c6backed No | 76c | 1,537$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,502$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…036bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,452$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 39c | 1,446$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…595abacked Yes | 7c | 1,437$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…98e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,352$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 17c | 1,328$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +474.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 75c | 1,328$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,302$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,290$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a24…6412backed Yes | 5c | 1,286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 67c | 1,279$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.59 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…77f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,258$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…9707backed No | 39c | 1,240$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…3d81backed Yes | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…1d82backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 5c | 1,183$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +466%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…a9f9backed Yes | 71c | 1,142$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…6175backed Yes | 7c | 1,114$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…7772backed No | 17c | 1,107$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +195%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 68c | 1,100$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…1018backed Yes | 74c | 1,061$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…b385backed Yes | 47c | 1,055$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…a161backed Yes | 4c | 1,054$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…b2f0backed No | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 995.72$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 993.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3d…d6a5backed Yes | 64c | 965.62$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…64c4backed Yes | 55c | 947.67$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 23c | 906.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…1972backed No | 56c | 900.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b11dbacked No | 61c | 900$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…c0c4backed Yes | 7c | 883.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…ccf2backed Yes | 3c | 874.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 30c | 868.2$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.