China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3be93b488f2a9b2480dd5d5e9a04ca0b37fd2a6b20664ef2b1584d75c5a1d93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfee3…e3adbacked No | 7c | 21,863$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…d372backed No | 3c | 16,559$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 4c | 9,482$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 11c | 8,372$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 4,773$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 9c | 4,359$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 11c | 4,008$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.19 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 2,759$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 12c | 2,715$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…6fe3backed No | 15c | 2,065$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 2,018$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.77 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 11c | 1,911$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 12c | 1,559$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 3c | 1,523$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 4c | 1,420$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…760ebacked No | 8c | 1,318$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb90…1c2cbacked No | 14c | 1,262$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked No | 16c | 1,116$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 1,083$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…c582backed No | 15c | 1,022$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 10c | 1,007$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 2c | 955$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…a84ebacked No | 14c | 949.41$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 10c | 931.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 13c | 915.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 11c | 900$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f23…afd3backed No | 12c | 863.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked No | 10c | 809.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…7855backed No | 10c | 750.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 10c | 702.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 632.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 9c | 539.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 74c | 535$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 17c | 528$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…4ba4backed No | 12c | 525.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ec0fbacked No | 4c | 516$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 491.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 5c | 462.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 444.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 25c | 438$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…8102backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 5c | 392.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 357.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked No | 11c | 335.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed No | 9c | 335$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb927…dd94backed No | 12c | 329.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…54e2backed No | 8c | 306.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 6c | 305.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…f795backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…6ecbbacked No | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 283.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 270.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…a1e3backed No | 12c | 261.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9a7cbacked No | 8c | 257.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked No | 10c | 254.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…4ab5backed No | 29c | 228$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…8b71backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…6c0cbacked No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 13c | 201.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…96d1backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…4b8fbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…0725backed No | 12c | 184.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 12c | 176.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…8738backed No | 12c | 164.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 13c | 164$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 159.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4972…2e83backed No | 13c | 158.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…2855backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 10c | 150.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…a05bbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…f0b8backed No | 11c | 140.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…9a68backed No | 16c | 128.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…df89backed No | 10c | 125.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 12c | 114.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 11c | 113.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 35c | 106$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 15c | 105.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…5af6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3b…1418backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…280ebacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 97.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 15c | 85.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…04cfbacked No | 12c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed Yes | 78c | 84.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2925…9506backed No | 13c | 84.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…bc58backed No | 15c | 83.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f0…7d99backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 16c | 79.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…02e6backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…742bbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…9021backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.