China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815a50e2f7caef6613c02f487bf7132da24a00bfa85101158101d2fa6d03b1e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $683,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,808 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 694 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61dc…c316backed Yes | 64c | 54,735$34,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,945.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked No | 48c | 52,954$25,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,770.07 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…b2f0backed No | 56c | 47,896$26,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,066.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…0fd0backed Yes | 1c | 29,975$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…b2a8backed No | 72c | 28,344$20,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,863.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…d372backed No | 49c | 20,555$10,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,447.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 26c | 20,146$5,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,288.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f7…7573backed Yes | 51c | 19,593$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,983.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed No | 36c | 16,869$6,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,728.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 24c | 16,396$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…809dbacked No | 34c | 14,657$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,660.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…99efbacked Yes | 3c | 12,151$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…1795backed Yes | 15c | 12,062$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…7e08backed Yes | 3c | 11,416$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…1f2dbacked No | 76c | 11,187$8,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 53c | 10,844$5,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,745.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…3592backed Yes | 1c | 10,090$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee3…e3adbacked No | 52c | 9,647$4,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,653.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 9,510$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.44 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 71c | 9,388$6,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…a396backed Yes | 24c | 9,238$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 61c | 8,667$5,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,303.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f72…af9cbacked Yes | 59c | 8,544$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,007.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…56a5backed Yes | 11c | 8,379$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked No | 53c | 8,160$4,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,812.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 49c | 7,900$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,045.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…4147backed Yes | 46c | 7,283$3,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,328.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed No | 59c | 6,760$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 43c | 6,652$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 6c | 6,345$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed Yes | 1c | 6,256$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 51c | 6,020$3,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 28c | 5,737$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 56c | 5,602$3,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 5,540$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,935.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…cdf1backed No | 38c | 5,354$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 43c | 5,272$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,277 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 62c | 4,772$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…f0febacked Yes | 1c | 4,660$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503e…825fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,493$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…ef49backed Yes | 15c | 4,346$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 65c | 4,274$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb362…abe1backed No | 63c | 4,254$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 59c | 4,154$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…2071backed Yes | 36c | 4,153$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…b0a9backed Yes | 52c | 4,079$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 51c | 3,892$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…74e2backed Yes | 15c | 3,789$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 62c | 3,786$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.3 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…e174backed Yes | 10c | 3,702$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7f2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed No | 55c | 3,500$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…fe4fbacked No | 71c | 3,495$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 15c | 3,454$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…6981backed No | 38c | 3,440$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…9790backed No | 34c | 3,432$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…b2b3backed Yes | 34c | 3,400$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,360$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8e16backed No | 77c | 3,301$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…8cbebacked Yes | 59c | 3,081$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…98e6backed Yes | 49c | 3,077$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…936fbacked Yes | 68c | 2,957$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5249…714fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,848$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes | 30c | 2,800$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 2,778$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,705$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 34c | 2,652$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…16f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,590$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 56c | 2,572$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c89…363dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,570$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…a243backed Yes | 23c | 2,528$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 13c | 2,400$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 2,381$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 2,372$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,359$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…8838backed Yes | 3c | 2,342$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed Yes | 63c | 2,330$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…c59ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,300$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…8e81backed No | 47c | 2,178$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 45c | 2,111$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…4e26backed No | 52c | 2,040$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc0…8126backed No | 40c | 1,961$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…5df4backed No | 54c | 1,869$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…c8b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,868$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6d…3d46backed Yes | 50c | 1,840$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed No | 38c | 1,800$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…aab5backed Yes | 33c | 1,782$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 33c | 1,776$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…b385backed Yes | 14c | 1,774$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…c561backed Yes | 3c | 1,749$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 46c | 1,698$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,687$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 1,634$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 15c | 1,620$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…f32dbacked No | 41c | 1,571$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 39c | 1,564$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Yes | 33c | 1,532$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.