China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f33dcaee46a076e54a3bae351cff1afcbd5252dfa31c6afe798e050fbe82d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,262$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…90c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,094$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 5c | 2,245$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 2c | 1,763$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,597$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…51a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,476$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09de…0c68backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 2c | 999.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes | 7c | 995.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 927$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 15c | 733.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 599.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 15c | 595.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 12c | 579.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…1d82backed Yes | 9c | 534.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…99efbacked Yes | 7c | 479.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…6c0cbacked Yes | 4c | 389.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…a36abacked Yes | 14c | 382.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 4c | 269.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3730…af98backed Yes | 13c | 203.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 188.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 8c | 147$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…aab5backed Yes | 10c | 126.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…f3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.