China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa01d9e6fa9c51783e171138dc3fcef2a2bc44ac0f15b95903c12a5ee6abe67ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x811c…6e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 11,757$4,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,639.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…1979backed Yes | 47c | 10,556$4,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,928.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f38…666bbacked No | 54c | 10,200$5,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,701.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 8,033$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.65 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked No | 55c | 7,952$4,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed No | 52c | 5,821$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…05babacked Yes | 49c | 5,494$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked No | 52c | 4,477$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…3b40backed Yes | 46c | 4,243$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…e174backed Yes | 30c | 4,180$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…ae43backed Yes | 50c | 3,869$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 60c | 3,800$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed No | 54c | 3,001$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 40c | 2,911$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…6a2dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,836$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…f3adbacked Yes | 30c | 2,636$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…45c4backed No | 60c | 2,267$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…cdf1backed No | 50c | 2,213$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +177.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,132$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 46c | 2,076$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 73c | 1,846$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked Yes | 73c | 1,716$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…312fbacked No | 61c | 1,686$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,609$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 2c | 1,490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 37c | 1,421$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,297$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.24 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed Yes | 50c | 1,206$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 42c | 1,185$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 41c | 1,154$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…e378backed No | 62c | 955.27$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b1…fe65backed Yes | 13c | 927.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…22c0backed No | 67c | 898.84$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 15c | 875$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 5c | 873.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 813.84$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…a9f9backed Yes | 43c | 778.43$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 775.06$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed No | 60c | 757.62$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 46c | 733.75$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 42c | 712.07$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 703$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked No | 59c | 692.85$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 685.41$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes | 44c | 683.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…23e8backed No | 52c | 679.67$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 40c | 663.87$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4f2cbacked No | 79c | 631.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…248ebacked Yes | 36c | 536.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 51c | 519.29$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 18c | 512.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 33c | 504.82$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +466%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bbd5backed Yes | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 37c | 499.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 21c | 471.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…7772backed No | 59c | 465.32$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +195%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 67c | 447.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…fc0dbacked Yes | 41c | 430.44$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +329%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes | 11c | 424.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…2fedbacked Yes | 18c | 420.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…fc95backed Yes | 66c | 419.37$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 28c | 401.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 46 | 4.3%2 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 399.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 59c | 397.68$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 52c | 393.72$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 19c | 372.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 52c | 372.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…7375backed No | 27c | 367.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +269.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 58c | 364.72$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…8b26backed No | 78c | 361.43$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 40c | 360.55$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 33c | 333.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 53c | 319.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 54c | 310.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 306.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5479…a28bbacked Yes | 18c | 305.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 64c | 299.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 23c | 296.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed Yes | 45c | 295.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 32c | 280.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed Yes | 46c | 280$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 20c | 268.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…71abbacked Yes | 63c | 267.78$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 267.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 43c | 259.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 21c | 250$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…c300backed No | 53c | 243.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 36c | 235$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 36c | 232.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 47c | 226.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed Yes | 46c | 223.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?this page
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 26?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 28?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Yes won
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No won
- DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.