TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5479…a28b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT3050%15 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Joaquin Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Khamzat Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.97
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$48.64
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+138.5%+$283.87
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Rob Font · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$55
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Michael Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Cody Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+162.4%+$113.68
UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Cody Brundage · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$214.7
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.98
Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will King Green win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+900%+$180
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+206.4%+$270.33
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Cháirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.98
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
UFC 323: Silva vs. Barber (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Barber · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+49.3%+$73.88
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Sadykhov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$112.8
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$377.67
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+222.6%+$149.13
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+71.6%+$286.46
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$140
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+257.1%+$38.57
UFC 322: Vieira vs. Nickal (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Nickal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+30.7%+$8.92
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.03
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$436.97
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$444.61
All 5 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+306.1%+$462.27
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$207.77
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.