TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cháirezof Bunes, Cháirez
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$707,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,188 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Bunes27c90,341$24,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,391.4716244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Bunes27c82,200$22,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,193.999240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Cháirez76c59,325$45,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,312.472871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cháirez73c57,676$41,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,840.12552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Cháirez72c50,000$35,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,199.993043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bunes28c43,394$12,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,320.439636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Cháirez71c35,300$25,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2377841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Bunes24c30,153$7,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,141.358434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bunes29c28,870$8,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,286.919544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Bunes30c22,221$6,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,585.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Cháirez73c21,826$15,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,903.0911657.8%67 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Cháirez70c21,618$15,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,484.3611554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bunes27c20,152$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,426.2135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Cháirez73c19,500$14,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,266.652941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Cháirez73c16,895$12,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,580.2314558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Cháirez73c16,636$12,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,491.622748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Bunes29c15,000$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3502142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Cháirez70c10,434$7,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,145.7720954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bunes29c10,344$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.785632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Cháirez71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90013453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Cháirez58c9,928$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.6115939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…50eabacked Cháirez73c9,783$7,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,641.382356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cháirez72c9,235$6,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.9128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…0386backed Cháirez72c9,021$6,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.397160.6%43 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bunes29c8,440$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.67528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Bunes29c8,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3201957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Cháirez73c7,500$5,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0253661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Cháirez73c7,405$5,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.481764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bunes2c5,596$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2726736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Cháirez72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Cháirez71c4,225$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.356055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bunes27c4,028$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.2533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Cháirez80c4,013$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.795152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Bunes25c3,864$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.057238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Bunes28c3,650$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Bunes20c3,426$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.395653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bunes29c3,403$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.7314551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bunes30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bunes35c2,962$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.0227448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Cháirez71c2,883$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.072528%7 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Bunes28c2,857$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Cháirez62c2,741$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.6337754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Bunes27c2,720$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Bunes21c2,681$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2635848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bunes32c2,600$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.9953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Cháirez63c2,570$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.383860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Cháirez71c2,529$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.415139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc0…c9e8backed Cháirez78c2,437$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.323943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Cháirez78c2,277$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.059247.8%44 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed Cháirez73c2,266$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.766475%48 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Cháirez77c2,165$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Cháirez71c2,100$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.31050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…db86backed Cháirez73c2,093$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.641855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Bunes27c2,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55015641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Bunes51c1,923$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.9528043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Cháirez73c1,896$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.943966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe455…9e9ebacked Bunes30c1,890$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Cháirez73c1,874$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1f…49e6backed Cháirez71c1,793$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.833259.4%19 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Cháirez73c1,690$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.287052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Bunes42c1,609$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.024240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cháirez71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.454665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f22…6482backed Cháirez75c1,339$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.749756.7%55 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Cháirez65c1,274$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.3616746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Cháirez73c1,225$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.2535664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Bunes28c1,202$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa51…a910backed Cháirez72c1,198$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Bunes36c1,141$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.1222438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Bunes28c1,111$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.084228.6%12 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cháirez64c1,100$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9930964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Bunes31c1,049$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5115540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Cháirez71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Cháirez74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601580%12 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bunes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cháirez75c955$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.98754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Cháirez73c926.93$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.5229151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed Cháirez72c924$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.721942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Bunes28c878.38$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.957534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Cháirez74c826.33$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4452252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Cháirez61c814.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.515851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad18…68d7backed Cháirez63c794.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.379855.1%54 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bunes43c793$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.575642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Cháirez65c764.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.857647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Cháirez72c750$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Bunes29c735.79$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.229228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Bunes42c734$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.265541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Bunes49c705$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.13246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Bunes21c700$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14720837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Cháirez72c694.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.446250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Cháirez73c684.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.965250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Bunes50c682.5$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.095736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Bunes29c671.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.878622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Cháirez50c636$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31826451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Cháirez57c618.06$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.211457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d4d…fe4abacked Cháirez64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2163100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdab9…cdfcbacked Cháirez71c591.55$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.55862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Cháirez67c581$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.545841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Bunes30c580$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1743141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Cháirez45c574.11$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.7221247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Cháirez72c568.54$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7212546.4%58 W · 67 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.