UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32bc4d8d28b0e255d4d0c32c67c16280b88e7d81ca8e8727dee4d1bf21a8bc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cháirezof Bunes, Cháirez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $613,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $707,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Bunes | 27c | 90,341$24,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,391.47 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Bunes | 27c | 82,200$22,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,193.99 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Cháirez | 76c | 59,325$45,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,312.47 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cháirez | 73c | 57,676$41,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,840.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Cháirez | 72c | 50,000$35,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,199.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bunes | 28c | 43,394$12,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,320.43 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Cháirez | 71c | 35,300$25,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Bunes | 24c | 30,153$7,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,141.35 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bunes | 29c | 28,870$8,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,286.9 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Bunes | 30c | 22,221$6,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,585.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cháirez | 73c | 21,826$15,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,903.09 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Cháirez | 70c | 21,618$15,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,484.36 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Bunes | 27c | 20,152$5,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,426.21 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Cháirez | 73c | 19,500$14,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.65 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Cháirez | 73c | 16,895$12,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,580.23 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Cháirez | 73c | 16,636$12,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,491.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Bunes | 29c | 15,000$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,350 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Cháirez | 70c | 10,434$7,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.77 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Bunes | 29c | 10,344$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.78 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Cháirez | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cháirez | 58c | 9,928$5,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.61 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…50eabacked Cháirez | 73c | 9,783$7,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.38 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cháirez | 72c | 9,235$6,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.91 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Cháirez | 72c | 9,021$6,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.39 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bunes | 29c | 8,440$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.6 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Bunes | 29c | 8,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Cháirez | 73c | 7,500$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Cháirez | 73c | 7,405$5,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.48 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Bunes | 2c | 5,596$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Cháirez | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…59fbbacked Cháirez | 71c | 4,225$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.35 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Bunes | 27c | 4,028$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.25 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Cháirez | 80c | 4,013$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.79 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Bunes | 25c | 3,864$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.05 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Bunes | 28c | 3,650$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Bunes | 20c | 3,426$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.39 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bunes | 29c | 3,403$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.73 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bunes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Bunes | 35c | 2,962$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.02 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Cháirez | 71c | 2,883$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.07 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Bunes | 28c | 2,857$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Cháirez | 62c | 2,741$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.63 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…b46ebacked Bunes | 27c | 2,720$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bunes | 21c | 2,681$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.26 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bunes | 32c | 2,600$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.99 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Cháirez | 63c | 2,570$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.38 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Cháirez | 71c | 2,529$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.41 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc0…c9e8backed Cháirez | 78c | 2,437$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.32 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Cháirez | 78c | 2,277$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.05 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Cháirez | 73c | 2,266$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.76 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…bb93backed Cháirez | 77c | 2,165$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Cháirez | 71c | 2,100$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…db86backed Cháirez | 73c | 2,093$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.64 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Bunes | 27c | 2,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Bunes | 51c | 1,923$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.95 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…e8e1backed Cháirez | 73c | 1,896$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.94 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…9e9ebacked Bunes | 30c | 1,890$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Cháirez | 73c | 1,874$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Cháirez | 71c | 1,793$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.83 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Cháirez | 73c | 1,690$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.28 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Bunes | 42c | 1,609$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cháirez | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…6482backed Cháirez | 75c | 1,339$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.74 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Cháirez | 65c | 1,274$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.36 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Cháirez | 73c | 1,225$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.25 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Bunes | 28c | 1,202$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Cháirez | 72c | 1,198$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Bunes | 36c | 1,141$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.12 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Bunes | 28c | 1,111$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.08 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Cháirez | 64c | 1,100$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bunes | 31c | 1,049$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.51 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Cháirez | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d2c1backed Cháirez | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bunes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cháirez | 75c | 955$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.9 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Cháirez | 73c | 926.93$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.52 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Cháirez | 72c | 924$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Bunes | 28c | 878.38$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.95 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Cháirez | 74c | 826.33$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b4…f97ebacked Cháirez | 61c | 814.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.51 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…68d7backed Cháirez | 63c | 794.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.37 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Bunes | 43c | 793$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.57 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Cháirez | 65c | 764.85$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Cháirez | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Bunes | 29c | 735.79$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.22 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Bunes | 42c | 734$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.26 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…ba3dbacked Bunes | 49c | 705$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Bunes | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Cháirez | 72c | 694.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d05…6f11backed Cháirez | 73c | 684.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.96 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Bunes | 50c | 682.5$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.09 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Bunes | 29c | 671.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.87 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Cháirez | 50c | 636$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Cháirez | 57c | 618.06$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…fe4abacked Cháirez | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab9…cdfcbacked Cháirez | 71c | 591.55$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Cháirez | 67c | 581$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Bunes | 30c | 580$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cháirez | 45c | 574.11$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.72 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Cháirez | 72c | 568.54$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Felipe Bunes vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Felipe Bunes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
- Will Édgar Cháirez win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.