UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91fc3e87d6b2e25089f0a5c9a24fe3452ba99befd10ee48d63d1650bd6127989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duncanof McKinney, Duncan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $375,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $385,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Duncan | 52c | 84,797$44,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,513.19 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked McKinney | 49c | 60,784$29,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,514.33 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Duncan | 50c | 43,242$21,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,499.01 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Duncan | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…d07bbacked McKinney | 0c | 30,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked McKinney | 50c | 24,459$12,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,229.48 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed McKinney | 50c | 21,192$10,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,583.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed McKinney | 46c | 19,403$8,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,994.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed McKinney | 49c | 16,585$8,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,135.41 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Duncan | 52c | 14,454$7,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,902.38 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked McKinney | 50c | 13,597$6,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,752.58 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked McKinney | 46c | 12,082$5,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,537.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed McKinney | 52c | 9,764$5,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed McKinney | 48c | 9,542$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed McKinney | 76c | 9,009$6,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,844.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked McKinney | 47c | 8,775$4,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked McKinney | 46c | 7,478$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.43 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Duncan | 46c | 7,000$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.13 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed McKinney | 48c | 6,446$3,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.47 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed McKinney | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Duncan | 51c | 5,000$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.13 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked McKinney | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Duncan | 51c | 4,900$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Duncan | 53c | 4,561$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.78 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked McKinney | 47c | 4,468$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Duncan | 24c | 3,781$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,873.56 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed McKinney | 48c | 3,597$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.71 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Duncan | 38c | 3,533$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.91 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed McKinney | 47c | 3,463$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.08 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Duncan | 26c | 3,324$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.55 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Duncan | 52c | 2,859$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.48 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed McKinney | 49c | 2,684$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.02 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed McKinney | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.98 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed McKinney | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Duncan | 48c | 2,172$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.47 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed McKinney | 48c | 2,071$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.61 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked McKinney | 44c | 2,005$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.04 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Duncan | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Duncan | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked McKinney | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Duncan | 55c | 1,899$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1ce8backed Duncan | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Duncan | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Duncan | 51c | 1,604$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked McKinney | 47c | 1,571$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.04 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Duncan | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Duncan | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Duncan | 54c | 1,481$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Duncan | 50c | 1,472$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.89 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Duncan | 51c | 1,238$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed McKinney | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked McKinney | 49c | 1,133$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked McKinney | 49c | 1,112$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Duncan | 53c | 1,107$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked McKinney | 48c | 1,102$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.49 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Duncan | 51c | 1,025$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed McKinney | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.64 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked McKinney | 47c | 1,010$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.75 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Duncan | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Duncan | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…88f3backed McKinney | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…4ebfbacked Duncan | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…3dfabacked McKinney | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Duncan | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Duncan | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked McKinney | 49c | 840.43$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Duncan | 53c | 840$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed McKinney | 50c | 813.94$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.91 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed McKinney | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked McKinney | 48c | 777$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.96 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…f3bcbacked Duncan | 54c | 749.26$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Duncan | 48c | 744.53$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.16 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed McKinney | 49c | 691.61$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed McKinney | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed McKinney | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Duncan | 50c | 603.1$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Duncan | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed McKinney | 48c | 568.75$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Duncan | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e88ebacked Duncan | 52c | 540.38$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Duncan | 52c | 538.46$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Duncan | 52c | 536.24$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Duncan | 52c | 509.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Duncan | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed McKinney | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Duncan | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Duncan | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Duncan | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…3864backed McKinney | 50c | 497.74$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Duncan | 51c | 491$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Duncan | 52c | 461.54$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…55f7backed McKinney | 50c | 460.66$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Duncan | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Duncan | 54c | 439.36$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…727bbacked McKinney | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked McKinney | 72c | 416.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Duncan | 52c | 415.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…39b1backed McKinney | 48c | 402.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked McKinney | 44c | 400$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed McKinney | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Chris Duncan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.