Us Politics · resolved market
Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6b3695d505eb2c28c899a99ac9b5708915b19802fb99dc3ea01834f1b69d7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,763$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 64c | 1,622$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.82 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 715.77$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.38 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes | 30c | 491.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…7483backed Yes | 68c | 393.7$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 39c | 349$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 284.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 58c | 201.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 61c | 162.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 37c | 142.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 38c | 142.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 77c | 132.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 15c | 104.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 52c | 90.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 76c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 50.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 76c | 46.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 59c | 45.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…b365backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?this page
- Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will between 217 and 218 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will between 221 and 222 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?Yes won
- Will between 223 and 224 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will between 225 and 226 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will fewer than 215 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will more than 227 or more U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?No won
- Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.