Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2f2754f23f26fe7120426ccddd544802c4db494c8d63675473479617ec8b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked Yes | 3c | 71,125$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 26c | 7,921$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 5,620$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.17 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…7cb2backed Yes | 9c | 3,372$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 73c | 3,288$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.67 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 74c | 2,336$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.57 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…2749backed No | 77c | 2,326$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,059$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 6c | 1,896$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…2317backed Yes | 29c | 1,744$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,595$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…3e46backed Yes | 16c | 1,394$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,388$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 74c | 1,170$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.09 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…37b0backed Yes | 22c | 1,107$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…0cc5backed Yes | 4c | 1,106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…4fdbbacked Yes | 32c | 992.33$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 979.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 5c | 978.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 15c | 906.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…46d6backed Yes | 4c | 784$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 774.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 762.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 7c | 709.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 704.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 685.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 28c | 664.89$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes | 11c | 664.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…7ef7backed Yes | 4c | 647.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…793fbacked Yes | 6c | 580$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 5c | 561.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 521$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab7…06adbacked No | 71c | 479.74$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…5681backed Yes | 4c | 451.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 77c | 421.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 68c | 403.36$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…dc82backed No | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 26c | 350$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…65bfbacked No | 73c | 329.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 3c | 327.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…06f0backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…dd2dbacked Yes | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 74c | 266.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 255$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 16c | 249.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…02aebacked Yes | 21c | 233.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…1638backed Yes | 6c | 232$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 219.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…fa2cbacked Yes | 5c | 215.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 5c | 211.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d25fbacked Yes | 30c | 209$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…42cbbacked Yes | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…5e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 77c | 199.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…488fbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 71c | 127.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…8f34backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…746dbacked Yes | 27c | 123.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc8…cd4fbacked Yes | 16c | 123.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…2e42backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…5f2cbacked No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…4d04backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…ac82backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbb…2206backed Yes | 28c | 94.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…70d8backed No | 74c | 81.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…a125backed Yes | 17c | 81.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…2373backed Yes | 17c | 79.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes | 28c | 79.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…e40cbacked Yes | 32c | 77.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 18c | 69.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…ed3dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…0e4fbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 29c | 63.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 69c | 59.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e9…2bc6backed Yes | 34c | 59.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 25c | 59.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 22c | 48.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…f877backed No | 69c | 43.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 28c | 42.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…5109backed Yes | 26c | 38.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.