Us Politics · resolved market
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06bbb0674262f5e6e488a37d0078688be16b5cb502792093ab3e762653905a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 8,950$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed No | 2c | 2,803$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 2,002$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 9c | 1,351$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,324$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 2c | 1,088$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 992.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed Yes | 76c | 986.45$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 7c | 985.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 8c | 969.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…7a60backed No | 3c | 802.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 607.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 3c | 494.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…fe46backed No | 9c | 476.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 12c | 389$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…93d3backed No | 11c | 378.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 356.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…a76ebacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 9c | 199$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…4dc4backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed No | 15c | 96.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.