Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05938a26bfa984743198f9366737d3b4f3fcb73fe0df6d00a7b360049b3f5d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $498,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $511,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 6c | 55,383$3,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.45 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 2c | 25,046$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 9c | 17,038$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked No | 9c | 14,656$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 1c | 13,867$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 6c | 8,373$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.75 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 0c | 8,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 6,185$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 6,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 3c | 5,890$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 4c | 5,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…0bbbbacked No | 13c | 4,823$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 10c | 4,544$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 2c | 4,338$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed No | 9c | 3,954$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…c9f4backed No | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a69…b592backed No | 15c | 3,804$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 9c | 3,571$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.43 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 22c | 3,558$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…3cc7backed No | 3c | 2,945$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63cd…b8c8backed No | 4c | 2,941$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed No | 2c | 2,913$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 21c | 2,435$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 75c | 2,069$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.12 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 8c | 2,039$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.57 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 2,018$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed No | 3c | 1,983$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…baa1backed No | 3c | 1,788$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 8c | 1,631$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 8c | 1,549$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…64c4backed No | 4c | 1,397$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked No | 8c | 1,322$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9361…f031backed No | 10c | 1,272$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…53bdbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 6c | 1,128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…e90cbacked No | 11c | 1,004$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…8671backed No | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 14c | 977.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed No | 7c | 969.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1b1cbacked No | 6c | 955.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 929.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked No | 10c | 922.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…7b82backed No | 5c | 850.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed No | 10c | 843.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4cefbacked No | 12c | 843.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…63f8backed No | 4c | 834.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed No | 6c | 830.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 9c | 820$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…70cfbacked No | 13c | 759$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 9c | 749.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246a…4381backed No | 9c | 666.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…f5aebacked No | 2c | 634.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed No | 3c | 631.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…7badbacked No | 13c | 612.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa2…d33ebacked No | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 7c | 549.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…a900backed No | 10c | 510.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…4ab8backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…44edbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…1cb6backed No | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…9dafbacked No | 30c | 482.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 442.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…8c3abacked No | 9c | 433.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…cdcebacked No | 10c | 402.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…b21fbacked No | 4c | 396.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed No | 14c | 370.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…9ae0backed No | 9c | 364.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…a7ffbacked No | 9c | 341.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc545…dc80backed No | 12c | 341$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a6…936bbacked No | 9c | 322.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…82a5backed No | 10c | 315$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 24c | 300.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked No | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9305…2017backed No | 8c | 274.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe938…987fbacked No | 20c | 272.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…da3abacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…8021backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 10c | 239.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 11c | 234.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ee26backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 5c | 209.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…cbc1backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 77c | 191.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 6c | 174.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…78a4backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…fb4bbacked No | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…7ad9backed Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…050fbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed No | 10c | 145.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.