Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b64e5400a7ce9e07c9077647798ed4f781978fc123a35660e93318e548c7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $759,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $834,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $759,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 16c | 129,997$20,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,851.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 38c | 43,310$16,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,391.07 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…e0babacked Yes | 1c | 36,796$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 16,968$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 71c | 14,054$9,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,067.59 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 30c | 7,664$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,364.6 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 9cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 39c | 7,398$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,541.85 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 7,316$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.72 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked No | 36c | 5,663$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…1bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 5,468$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.32per pick | 14cpaid | +308.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…7dfebacked Yes | 6c | 4,769$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 55c | 3,414$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…51a4backed Yes | 9c | 3,190$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 8c | 3,125$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed No | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,721$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 22c | 2,226$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.14 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 8c | 2,136$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,895$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 1,591$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 1,482$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,242$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…779dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,093$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 5c | 956.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed No | 40c | 880.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 63c | 866.91$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.78 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…0e14backed Yes | 26c | 842.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…bf2bbacked No | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5b…19d9backed Yes | 67c | 741.92$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 41c | 728.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed No | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 47c | 709.6$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…6735backed Yes | 2c | 678.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed Yes | 8c | 643$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…e8adbacked Yes | 3c | 639.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 618.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…e0d7backed Yes | 2c | 610.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 597.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked No | 79c | 596$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe064…cd51backed Yes | 3c | 585.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…6941backed Yes | 71c | 565.45$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…a1c5backed Yes | 7c | 538.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 39c | 503.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 5c | 499$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 66c | 452.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked Yes | 59c | 350$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 31c | 338.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…00a2backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…36ecbacked Yes | 3c | 320.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Yes | 6c | 316.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…985ebacked Yes | 6c | 308.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…8080backed Yes | 35c | 287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 284.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…3bccbacked No | 32c | 264.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…2937backed No | 38c | 263.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 33c | 261.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 230.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…73ddbacked Yes | 65c | 224.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…8b6ebacked Yes | 36c | 222.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes | 45c | 212.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed No | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed No | 17c | 209.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed No | 41c | 204$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…6dccbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693f…8fcebacked Yes | 52c | 193.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed No | 35c | 185$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…06f0backed Yes | 28c | 177.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 15c | 173.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked Yes | 28c | 170$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 37c | 168.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…5bdcbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 59c | 145$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…aff4backed No | 71c | 141.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 9c | 114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes | 50c | 103.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…357ebacked No | 40c | 97.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 26c | 95.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 72c | 95.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…2150backed No | 74c | 95.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 25c | 80.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 63c | 79.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faa…9698backed Yes | 64c | 74.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…7143backed No | 33c | 67.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +104%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked No | 30c | 66.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…dd16backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.