TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes11c3,867$429 inLost-$429.217227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c804.63$122 inLost-$122.2496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes13c598.93$77 inLost-$77.4132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked Yes6c305.35$18 inLost-$18.321330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes38c260.83$100 inLost-$1002638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b12…a440backed Yes13c258.31$34 inLost-$33.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes11c242.97$27 inLost-$27.55834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost-$264330.2%13 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…050fbacked Yes13c200$26 inLost-$2670%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes12c194.81$24 inLost-$23.787825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes12c175.52$21 inLost-$21.0614940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes13c157.28$21 inLost-$211118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes14c144.38$20 inLost-$201225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacea…35bebacked Yes13c140.77$18 inLost-$18.3475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick17cpaid+329.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No79c120.1$95 inWon+$25.1212531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c110.61$20 inLost-$20.2899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes17c104.53$18 inLost-$17.776137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf5f…e086backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.