Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1b3b517712e940e37256cd5aa7c920a60a5a03a5d52467c811f5c355322491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ef…9ff1backed Yes | 12c | 8,518$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked No | 78c | 2,931$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 29c | 2,314$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 31c | 2,254$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.87 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 1,827$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.44 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 47c | 1,517$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.01 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,510$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 19c | 1,474$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 38c | 1,449$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.44 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 1,270$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.35 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 67c | 1,015$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 67c | 1,013$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.84 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 76c | 963.78$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 908.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…a2c0backed Yes | 8c | 826$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 754.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 65c | 602.29$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 20c | 600$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 545.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 36c | 400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…7ce8backed Yes | 3c | 343.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 22c | 342$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 323.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 8c | 302$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 64c | 250$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…e862backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27c0backed Yes | 10c | 207.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…aa7ebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 153.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…45a9backed No | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…7bf2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf718…2a76backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 68c | 93.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…3abfbacked Yes | 41c | 42.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 36c | 40.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…9527backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 78cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…95cebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?this page
- Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Yes won
- Will Ron Paul be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration?No won
- Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?Yes won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.